Alabama 5A-6A - Things to know heading into Day 2
From the team race to the top seeds marching on - day one went pretty much like what most people would have expected.
Team Race
Arab leads the team race by 2 points over Gardendale. Arab has 2 more wrestlers than Gardendale that are still “alive” (14 vs. 12), but Gardendale has 9 of their wrestlers on the front side of the bracket. These first two consolation rounds will be important for Arab - if they get wins then they will extend their lead (which is less important at the moment than just having wrestlers still competing). Gardendale “may” close that gap when we get the championship quarters because they have 2 more wrestlers in the quarters than Arab.
Attrition will begin to take its toll and you will begin to see the team scores spread out over the next three rounds (the 2 consi rounds and the quarters). The team race likely won’t be won on Friday, but it can certainly be lost. Expect McAdory and Wetumpka to “stick around”, but the gap between them and the top two teams will likely begin to widen a bit more. Of course - if Gardendale and Arab lose half of their matches and McAdory and Wetumpka win more than 80-90% of their matches then that won’t happen and we will continue to have a tight team race (that’s not likely, but certainly possible).
Ft Payne should stay in the hunt with 6 in the quarters, but they lack the #’s to really pressure the top 4 teams and Mountain Brook, Oxford, Homewood, and Southside will have to rely on the bulk of their points coming from the backside. Even if each of those 4 teams get 3-4 wins in the quarters they will still be trailing the top teams (but each could make a run for a top 5 finish - they just need to keep working). Jasper sits in the best position to move up in the next 3 rounds - they have 5 in the quarters (more than any team from #6 through #15) and 4 in the consis.
Seeds:
Just 2 (of the 56) of the top 4 seeds lost on day 1. But that will change in the quarters. If you use the NCAA tournament (historically) as a guide - the quarters are the round where you see the biggest number of “upsets” of the top seeds. And they aren’t really upsets. The difference between a #3 and a #6 seed (or a #4 and a #5) isn’t usually very significant. The #1’s and #2’s will lose less often than the #3’s and #4’s, but even some of them will drop their match in the quarters. Mind you … the top 4 seeds are still more likely to move on than the lower seeds - I’m just saying this is the round when you will begin to see some of that happen.
Bracketbusters
If you read the Fan’s Guide you would know that I routinely pick a bracketbuster for each bracket. A bracketbuster is a wrestler that I felt was “underseeded” or drew a bracket that benefitted him - giving the wrestler an opportunity to make a run through the tournament. Sometimes bracketbusters are easy to pick because I think the seeding criteria wasn’t right, but most of the time they are difficult because you never know who is going to win some of those “toss-up” matches.
Here is a shoutout to those wrestlers that have through Day 1 - busted their brackets (meaning they have pulled at least 1 “upset” over a top 8 seed and are into the quarters). If you are interested in how well I did in picking a bracketbuster - you can read the Fan’s Guide here. But so you don’t have to flip back and forth - I’ve bolded them below.
106
Chase Campbell - Springville
Cale Tucker - Chelsea
113
Chad Strickland - Wetumpka
Sam Novosel - East Limestone
120
Ian Orr - Springville
126
None - each of the top 8 seeds advanced to the quarters
132
Bronson Jackson - Arab
Harrison England - Mtn Brook
Jacob Dease - Southside, Gadsden - easiest bracketbuster to pick. 2x State Champ that can beat anyone in the bracket.
138
Cooper Brooks - Jasper
145
Gavin Strain - Robertsdale
152
Arturo Rodriguez - Ft Payne
Keenan Wyatt - Gardendale - 2nd easiest bracketbuster to pick. Way “underseeded” and his quarter vs. New should be fun to watch.
160
Justin Yunke - Helena
170
Derrick Orvik - Gardendale
Warner Williamson - Spanish Fort
182
Tyler Easter - St Clair County
195
Jake Ingram - Pelham
Matt Franks - Gardendale
Eric Muse - Jackson-Olin
220
Caleb McCulley - Alexandria
Michael Robertson - Arab
285
TJ Tate - Ft Payne
Riley Dunn - Gardendale
Damien Lawry - Benjamin Russell - 3rd easiest bracketbuster to pick. Would’ve been a state placer last year if he could’ve beaten out Norris (but still a difficult pick because he had to beat the #3 seed in the Round of 16).
Enjoy Day 2 of the 5A-6A Alabama State Tournament