State Wrap-Up - Episode 10: The Bama Bracket Breakers
A bracket breaker is defined differently for different states and sometimes differently by classification in the same state. Mostly it comes down to how large the bracket is as to what defines a bracket breaker and where they finish. So read each state first to understand how I have chosen to define it. Broadly speaking … it is a wrestler that comes in under the radar and goes on to win matches they either “shouldn’t” win (according to their previous weeks finish).
ALABAMA BRACKET BREAKERS
Alabama is the only state on the SE that truly “seeds” their tournament. If you are unfamiliar with the term a “seed” (and this isn’t just wrestling is
A seed is a competitor or team in a sport or other tournament who is given a preliminary ranking for the purposes of the draw. Players/teams are "planted" into the bracket in a manner that is typically intended so that the best do not meet until later in the competition.
Sometimes those seeds are correct - other times they are not. Below are the wrestlers that outwrestled their seed.
5A-6A - 32-man brackets meaning 448 wrestlers. 8 in each weight made the podium (112 wrestlers). 43 wrestlers outperformed their “seed” - meaning they were seeded below where they finished. That is a lot of names to capture below … so we have narrowed the list to wrestlers that outperformed their seed and were seeded out of the top 8 (meaning the seeding criteria did not believe they would make the podium when the tournament started).
NOTE: Several wrestlers outperformed their seeds that were seeded in the top 8 - for example; Rafael Hipolito was seeded #3 and won his weight, but he doesn’t really epitomize the idea of a bracket buster.
Italicized wrestlers were wrestlers that were not seeded in the top 20.
Sean Arrington - Clay-Chalkville - SEEDED #25; FINISHED 8th at 160
Cooper Brooks - Jasper -Seeded #10; Finished 8th at 138
Chase Campbell - Springville - Seeded #9; Finished 8th at 106
Quin Cotten - Lincoln - Seeded #10; Finished 8th at 145
Jordan Cottrell - Homewood - Seeded #14; Finished 7th at 132
Jax Cyrus - Ft Payne - Seeded #12; Finished 5th at 113
Jacob Dease - Southside Gadsden - SEEDED #10; FINISHED 1st at 132 - Easiest bracket breaker I picked in the Fan’s Guide. Dease was a 2x State Champ before missing last year with an injury. Because of the seeding criteria he was put in as a #10.
Myers Duncan - Pike Road - Seeded #12; Finished 8th at 120
Riley Dunn - Gardendale - Seeded #12; Finished 8th at 285
Tyler Easter - St Clair County - Seeded #13; Finished 8th at 182
Harrison England - Mountain Brook - SEEDED #22; FINISHED 8th at 132
Matt Franks - Gardendale - Seeded #12; Finished 8th at 195
Jake Ingram - Pelham - Seeded #9; Finished 6th at 195
Tristen Lathem - Oxford - Seeded #13; Finished 8th at 170
Damien Lawry - Benjamin Russell - Seeded #14; Finished 2nd at 285 - Lawry was one of my 7 bracket breakers (that made this list) at the beginning. He was seeded low because he didn’t wrestle last year with Norris in the lineup. A real problem with the seeding criteria.
Trace McCaleb - Benjamin Russell - SEEDED #21; FINISHED 8th at 220
Caleb McCulley - Alexandria - Seeded #12; Finished 6th at 220
Levi McGrew - Helena - Seeded #11; Finished 6th at 113
Graham Miner - Homewood - Seeded #9; Finished 3rd at 120
Eric Muse - Jackson-Olin - Seeded #11; Finished 7th at 195
Derrick Orvik - Gardendale - Seeded #9; Finished 7th at 170
Michael Robertson - Arab - SEEDED #22; FINISHED 4th at 220
Arturo Rodriguez - Ft Payne - Seeded #9; Finished 5th at 152
Logan Shell - Pell City - Seeded #17; Finished 7th at 113
Gavin Strain - Robertsdale - SEEDED #24; FINISHED 5th at 145 - Strain was one of the bracket breakers I picked in the Fan’s Guide that made this list. He was seeded very low and his rise to a top 5 finish wasn’t a surprise to some of us.
Chad Strickland - Wetumpka - Seeded #9; Finished 4th
Cale Tucker - Chelsea - Seeded #10; Finished 2nd at 106 - Another wrestler I picked as a bracket breaker in the Fan’s Guide (and an easy pick if you watched the 106’s wrestle). Tucker got a tough draw but beat returning State Champ PJ Henderson on his way to taking 2nd.
Jamarion Whetstone - Benjamin Russell - Seeded #11; Finished 7th at 145
Keenan Wyatt - Gardendale - Seeded #10; Finished 3rd at 152 - Another bracket breaker pick … only loss came to 4x State Champ Jaden New in the quarters.
Justin Yunke - Helena - Seeded #10; Finished 7th at 160
Seeding Accuracy: 5A-6A was seeded fairly well if we look at the overall error factor for the tournament (0.122). The 138 lb. weight class was seeded particularly well for a 32-man bracket. 4 wrestlers were seeded where they finished - Gilham (#4), Phillips (#5), Lawler (#3), and McCord (#6). The overall error factor at 138 was just 0.03. Other weights that were seeded well include:
170 and 126 - error factor of 0.052
182 - 0.078
106 - 0.092
Weights that were not seeded well according to the calculated error factor include:
132 - 0.214
113 and 220 - 0.21
145 - 0.175
A more detailed explanation of seeding accuracy and error factors is explained below in the 1A-4A section.
7A - 16-man brackets that placed top 6. In the Fan’s Guide I picked some bracket busters that were either the #7 or #8 seeds, but for the purposes on this list we are going with only those that were not seeded in the top 8. Seven wrestlers seeded #9 or lower made the podium.
Carson Farris - Vestavia Hills - Seeded #14; Finished 2nd at 126
Fischer Harrison - Spain Park - Seeded #10; Finished 3rd at 145
Logan McMeans - James Clemens - Seeded #12; Finished 6th at 145
Max Milazzo - Spain Park - Seeded #9; Finished 6th at 138
Joseph Soto - Central Phenix City - Seeded #12; Finished 6th at 106
John Turner - Foley - Seeded #11; Finished 4th at 220
Evan Warren - Hoover - Seeded #9; Finished 5th at 170
Seeding Accuracy: 7A was - according to the error factors - significantly better seeded than 1A-4A. The weights with the lowest error factor …
195 and 113 - error factor of 0.049
132 and 160 - 0.086
The weights with the largest error factor …
126 - 0.283
220 - 0.246
145 - 0.222
Need an explanation of error factors and seeding accuracy? Jump down to the 1A-4A explanation of the 285 lb. weight class.
1A - 4A - 16-man brackets that placed top 6. In the Fan’s Guide I picked some bracket busters that were either the #7 or #8 seeds, but for the purposes on this list we are going with only those that were not seeded in the top 8. Eleven wrestlers seeded #9 or lower made the podium.
Nathan Boone - Ranburne - Seeded #13; Finished 2nd at 126
John Lexin Caldwell - Ranburne - Seeded #15; Finished 6th at 145
Trevin Coheley - Pleasant Valley - Seeded #9; Finished 6th at 182
Zeke Curvin - Pleasant Valley - Seeded #9; Finished 3rd at 170
Zeke Dernlan - Bayshore Christian - Seeded #11; Finished 4th at 106
Malachi Goble - Ohatchee - Seeded #12; Finished 6th at 138
Camden Hamrie - Susan Moore - Seeded #12; Finished 5th at 113
Ethan Hendrickson - New Hope - Seeded #9; Finished 3rd at 152
Kanden Robertson - Susan Moore - Seeded #11; Finished 5th at 145
Joseph Rodriguez - Montgomery Catholic - Seeded #9; Finished 3rd at 126
Billy Vercher - American Christian - Seeded #10; Finished 4th at 220
Seeding Accuracy: It is always interesting to see what the accuracy is once everything plays out on the mat. According to the stats - 285 was seeded the best (or most accurate) with an error factor of 0.074. What does that mean? Well simply - every one of the wrestlers that made the podium were also seeded in the top 6 (and error factor of 0.000 would be the best). At 285 Carson was seeded #1 and finished 1st, Cole Dennis was seeded #2 and finished 2nd and Thomas Walls was seeded #4 and finished 4th … they all net a “perfect” zero. Mason Wilson and Taylor Penney outperformed their seeds - Wilson was seeded 5th and finished 3rd and Penney was seeded 6th and finished 5th. Nicholas Calderon was seeded 3rd and finished 6th. That yields a seed error of 6 … and an error factor of 0.074. If you find this particularly interesting you might want to read this dissertation by Jonathan Hennessy - it is not specifically related to the error factors we look at above, but gives you a general idea of the logic behind seeding.
Ultimately we expect “upsets” - we might even be programmed to hope they happen. Here are the most accurate weights (based on seeds and seed error) in 1A-4A:
285 - error factor of 0.074
120 - 0.098
160 - 0.148
170 - 0.148
and the “worst” seeds - or to put a positive spin on it - these are brackets that unseeded wrestlers had the pleasure of breaking:
106 - 0.432
138 - 0.382
126 - 0.345
220 - 0.308