A Fan's Guide to the North Carolina 3A State Tournament
Welcome to the Fan’s Guide for the North Carolina 3A State Tournament … a collaboration with Carolina Takedown Talk.
So what is a Fan’s Guide?
The Fan’s Guide is a look at the tournament as a whole and each individual weight class … from a fan’s perspective. But it is not a prediction of who will win or who will make the podium. In fact, a Fan’s Guide is a little different. It is a look at a few individual pieces from each bracket … they include:
Favorite: the wrestler that enters the tournament as a section champ and has the best shot to claim the top step.
Contenders: a wrestler that finishes 1st or 2nd at sectionals has a decent chance to make the podium.
Darkhorse: a wrestler that finished 2nd, 3rd, or 4th at one of the region tournaments, but could make a run for the top step.
Bracketbuster: a wrestler that finished 3rd or 4th in their region, but could make a run for the podium.
Isn’t that kind of a prediction?
Yes and no. I do identify the favorite, but beyond that I have no idea of who will march through the bracket and claim a title (don’t get me wrong - I’ve watched a lot of wrestling this season so I have an idea of what will happen). I could give you an educated guess about a possible finals match and who will make the podium, but in the world of high school wrestling that is dangerous territory. Few wrestlers (if any) are unbeatable … but we do have past results and past accomplishments on which to make a guess or two. As I read recently, “Confidence in a predictable future, therefore, is the providence of charlatans and fools.”In reality, I am as much of a fan as any of you and like to talk wrestling. I hope each athlete goes out and performs to their ability and we, as fans, get an opportunity to watch some great wrestling.
Remember the sole purpose of the website, twitter, instagram, fan’s guides, pictures, etc. is to promote the sport in the Southeast. Have a great time this weekend, enjoy the wrestling, and best of luck to everyone competing.
NOTE: ALL INFORMATION BELOW IS ASSUMING THAT THE INFORMATION INPUTTED INTO TRACKWRESTLING EITHER BY THE EVENT DIRECTOR OR THE COACHES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SEASON IS CORRECT.
A Look Back to 2023
There were actually 80 teams that had a qualifier in 2023 - we took the top 40 in order to take a deeper look at how the team race played out. Here are a few takeaways (and they inform in what we talk about in other parts of the Fan’s Guide):
The correlation between # of qualifiers and team points is quite strong at 0.77. We could draw a scatterplot and determine whether the 0.77 is statistically significant or not, but that is getting in the weeds a bit. The basic way to look at a correlation is whether there is a linear relationship between the two variables (# of qualifiers and team points) … and at 0.77 it is considered by many to be a strong correlation (really anything above 0.70 - keep in mind that a perfect correlation is 1.00). So what does that mean … well typically the more qualifiers you have the more likely you are to score a lot of points. There are always outliers in the data … both Central Cabarrus and North Iredell only brought 3 and finished in the top 10 and Swansboro brought 7 and finished 19th. Still the correlation holds and teams that bring more qualifiers are more likely to score the most points - keep that in mind as we look at the team race below.
8 teams had State Champions and 44 teams had at least one state placer. What that means is the 3A field is fairly diverse on the surface … but it should be noted that two teams accounted for half of the champions (Foard had 4 and Stuart Cramer had 3). Will we see another year where two teams dominate the top of the podium? It is possible. Union Pines, Pisgah, and others have the horses to make it happen, but I believe the key is # of placers. Three champs is nice, but it will likely take 6 or 7 placers for a team to take the title.
A few other things that stood out include:
Eight of 14 weights were won by Seniors in 2023 and just 1 freshman and 1 sophomore won a titles (freshman: Bently Sly at 120; sophomore: Bray Trivette at 138).
39 of 84 (46%) Placers were Seniors (lower than one might expect). Just 5 of the placers being freshmen (Sly at 120, Dominic Blue at 170, Landon Pope at 182, Will Varner at 126, and Jaelen Culp at 138).
Returning State Champs are:
Samuel Aponte of Cape Fear (106)
Bently Sly of Stuart Cramer (120)
Charleston Baglio of Central Cabarrus (126)
Bray Trivette of North Iredell (138)
Brayden Mejia of Foard (152)
Nicholas Mascolino of Union Pines (182)
We include all of this background information simply to give you an idea of who to watch and how the team race might play out over the weekend.
Region Dominance
One conversation that is always interesting to have is which region is strongest … well if we simply look at # of state placers from 2023 (and honestly a true look would be going back several years, but we will stick with just last year for this conversation):
FYI: in the table below - the columns represent state place
Every region had a state champion, but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t disparities. West finished with half of the champs (7 of 14) and the most placers (26 of 84).
The East trailed the other 3 regions by a large margin in terms of placers.
Sectional Placing Predicts State Place
Very straightforward in 3A - every State Champ in 3A also won a Region title the weekend before. And 44% (37 of 84) of the Region Champs made the podium. There is also a very clear line showing that as your region place increased the likelihood of a higher place at state did as well. Still we had several bracketbusters and darkhorses in the field in 2023.
7 wrestlers embraced the idea of being a bracketbuster and came from the #4 spot in their region to make the state podium. None climbed higher in 3A than Fernando Martinez of Cedar Ridge who finished 2nd at 113. The likelihood of making the state podium as a #4 from a region is quite small (7 of 84 or about 8%), but still 6 others managed to do it in addition to Martinez. They included:
Keith Rhodarmer of Enka
Cain Solis of Montgomery Central
Klint Rhude of Swansboro
Alex Jukoski of CATA
Aiden Enright of Union Pines
Nasir Grant of Eastern Guilford
Who will be this year’s bracketbusters or darkhorses?
The 2024 Team Race
The table below is a list of every qualifier by school, along with their place. So we could talk about a number of different teams, but in reality there are just a handful that have enough to really make a run for a team title. They are discussed below the table.
Forgot to put a header put the place across the top is the # of region placer had last week.
This looks like a battle between Union Pines and Eastern Guilford - just like duals. West Rowan should have something to say about that with 5 region champs, but they will need their #2’s and #3’s to do some work if they are going to hang with the top 2. First Flight should hang around, but in reality no other team really has the number of qualifiers to stay with the top 3 (at least in a race for first) … a battle for top 3 is another story. Union Pines has the edge with 7 that finished 1st or 2nd and Eastern Guilford has 4 that finished 4th, but if the duals told you anything … don’t count out the Eastern Guilford gang this weekend.
106 lbs.
Favorite: Willian Hoo Chocoj (Eastern Guilford) 3A-ME 1st
Contenders:
Garrison Raper (South Rowan) 3A-MW 1st
Zane Taylor (St. Stephens) 3A-W 1st
Abrey Verhow (White Oak) 3A-E 1st
Lucas Belk (Piedmont) 3A-MW 2nd
Darkhorse: Connor Dean (Westover) 3A-ME 2nd
Bracketbuster: Lane Jenkins (West Rowan) 3A-MW 3rd
Things to know:
Just 1 returning SQ in the bracket and that is Willian Hoo Chocoj who came close to make the podium a year ago.
Raper wrestled much of the season at 113 - his only loss at 106 came to Mac Johnson of Cape Fear - he definitely one to watch
Belk also wrestled much of the season at 113 - his only loss at 106 came to Raper 7-0 in the Midwest finals last weekend
Zane Taylor is another outstanding freshman that only recently (very recently made the cut to 106) … he easily took care of business in the West Region
113 lbs.
Favorite: Tye Johnson (Cape Fear) 3A-ME 1st
Contenders:
Ethan Brownlee (South Johnston) 3A-E 1st
Kaden Helms (North Lincoln) 3A-W 1st
Cole Hunt (Jacksonville) 3A-E 2nd
Jathan Roby (West Rowan) 3A-MW 1st
Darkhorse: Elijah Dorsey (Dudley) 3A-ME 2nd
Bracketbuster: Kail Burnette (Pisgah) 3A-W 3rd
Things to know:
Tough to pick between Johnson and Brownlee - Johnson has wrestled 113 all season and has had some quality wins (Dorsey, Barnett, Barrier, etc.)
Ethan Brownlee was 4th last year at 106 and is 44-3 on the season after winning the East over Hunt (1-0)
A quarter with Hunt and Helms should be outstanding from a fan’s perspective
Elijah Dorsey lost 14-9 to Johnson in the Mideast final and is certainly one to watch in the 2nd quarter of the bracket
120 lbs.
Favorite: Samuel Aponte (Cape Fear) 3A-ME 1st
Contenders:
Joshua Kozminski (Dixon) 3A-E 1st
Kyle Simpson (Parkwood) 3A-MW 1st
Kane Bryson (Pisgah) 3A-W 1st
Jazion Humphrey (Dudley) 3A-ME 2nd
Darkhorse:
Bracketbuster:
Things to know:
Each of the region champs are outstanding … but Kane Bryson probably stood out the most with his fall of Bryan Reid in the finals
Aponte is the returning 106 lb. State Champion and is unbeaten this season - but he has been pushed - most recently in the mideast finals where he beat Humphrey 6-5 … so a return trip isn’t a foregone conclusion - but he is still the favorite
Kyle Simpson pulls Humphrey in his quarter of the bracket and that is a potential outstanding matchup and the winner could get Bryson for a trip to the finals … yes we are making some assumptions, but can’t help to look ahead a little
East Champ Kozminski shares the same side as Aponte - he is 43-1 with his only loss coming to Nick Lewis of New Bern at 126
126 lbs.
Favorite: Omari Figueroa (Eastern Guilford) 3A-ME 1st
Contenders:
Gunner Marshall (East Henderson) 3A-W 1st
Shawn Bass (Dudley) 3A-ME 2nd
Trey Hinson (Piedmont) 3A-MW 1st
Khalel Sibugan (First Flight) 3A-E 1st
Darkhorse: Austin Laws (Fred T. Foard) 3A-W 2nd
Bracketbuster: Till Helms (North Lincoln) 3A-W 3rd
Things to know:
Tough picking a favorite between returning State Placer Omari Figueroa who was 4th a year ago and Gunner Marshall who is the returning Runner-up at 120
Bass, Laws, and Helms are all returning SQ’s
Figueroa has beaten Bass, Hinson, and Helms this year, but hasn’t faced Marshall; Marshall’s last loss came to Kane Bryson in sudden victory .. he also has some quality wins as well this season
132 lbs.
Favorite: Bentley Sly (Stuart Cramer) 3A-W 1st
Contenders:
Anthony Munoz (Montgomery Central) 3A-MW 1st
Jared Hutchins (Orange) 3A-ME 1st
Gage Helms (North Lincoln) 3A-W 2nd
Luke Connick (West Brunswick) 3A-E 1st
Darkhorse: Andrew Fucci (Dixon) 3A-E 2nd
Bracketbuster: Gavin Cryderman (Enka) 3A-W 3rd
Things to know:
Bentley Sly is your returning 120 lb. State Champ - he is 47-1 this season with his only loss coming to Charleston Baglio up at 138 in November … he has some quality wins including one over Liam Hickey at the Gate City Grapple as a result he is the favorite
Jared Hutchins was 5th last year at this weight - he beat Logan Mitchell 14-6 to claim the Mideast title
Connick beat Fucci 4-2 to win the East and Munoz downed Hatch to claim the Midwest title
138 lbs.
Favorite: Kevin O`Brien (West Rowan) 3A-MW 1st
Contenders:
Charleston Baglio (Central Cabarrus) 3A-MW 2nd
Dylan Shirley (West Carteret) 3A-E 1st
Trevon Bowers (Forestview) 3A-W 1st
Troy Gryder (Eastern Guilford) 3A-ME 1st
Darkhorse: Nathan Canning (First Flight) 3A-E 2nd
Bracketbuster: Corbin McCartney (Central Davidson) 3A-MW 3rd
Things to know:
Charleston Baglio is the returning 126 lb. State Champion - his only loss this season came last weekend in the midwest finals to Kevin O’Brien
Kevin O’Brien was 3rd last year at 132 - he is 40-2 with both losses to Baglio … he does have the last match over Baglio though and as a result is the favorite (yes Baglio is 2-1 this season vs. O’Brien but all of the matches have been super close)
Trevon Bowers is unbeaten at 32-0 and won the west with with a 3-2 decision of Kavan Wilson
144 lbs.
Favorite: Finnius McCafferty (Union Pines) 3A-ME 1st
Contenders:
Luke Osborne (Ashe County) 3A-W 1st
Gavin Cohen (Croatan) 3A-E 1st
Stetson Collins (West Rowan) 3A-MW 1st
Shayden Edwards (East Rowan) 3A-MW 2nd
Darkhorse: Will Varner (Kings Mountain) 3A-W 2nd
Bracketbuster: Elijah Oakley (Piedmont) 3A-MW 4th
Things to know:
Another weight that we could make arguments for different wrestlers as the favorite … all of the region champs have a few losses and few have seen one another
Finnius McCafferty has a decision win over Gavin Cohen at state duals, but McCafferty, Osborne, or Collins haven’t crossed paths yet this season
Another thing that makes it tough is that all 4 really handled their regions - each will have their challenges along the way - McCafferty gets a tough Oakley in the first round and then could see returning State Placer Simpson in the quarters … Osborne could face Shayden Edwards (who lost 10-2 to Collins, but is also a returning State Runner-up at 138) … Collins (who was 6th last year at 126) could get Will Varner (4th last year at 126) in the quarters, etc.
150 lbs.
Favorite: Bray Trivette (North Iredell) 3A-MW 1st
Contenders:
Cameron Curva (Western Harnett) 3A-ME 1st
James Weaver (North Gaston) 3A-W 1st
Zamonte Bruen-Brown (St. Stephens) 3A-W 2nd
Jordyn Toliver (Currituck County) 3A-E 1st
Darkhorse: Tripp Sullivan (Union Pines) 3A-ME 2nd
Bracketbuster: Bodhi McCormack (Enka) 3A-W 3rd
Things to know:
Trivette is the returning 138 lb. State Champion and is unbeaten this season
Each of the region champs (minus Trivette) have several losses, but none have seen one another
Cameron Curva pinned Sullivan for the Mideast title, Weaver downed Bruen-Brown 1-0 in the West, and Toliver pinned Jamari Hill for the East title
Obviously your best path to the finals is opposite Trivette so that works in favor of Toliver, Bruen-Brown and Curva … keep an eye on Bodhi McCormack as well - he wrestled much of the season at 157 and only recently came down to 150 (his only loss coming to Weaver in the West Region)
157 lbs.
Favorite: Jaelen Culp (Kings Mountain) 3A-W 1st
Contenders:
Nathan McCartney (Central Davidson) 3A-MW 1st
Deshawn Carty (Harnett Central) 3A-ME 1st
Xander Hill (Pisgah) 3A-W 2nd
Samad Wooten (CB Aycock) 3A-E 1st
Darkhorse: Carson Mendenhall (Oak Grove) 3A-MW 2nd
Bracketbuster: Jace Rich (Southern Alamance) 3A-ME 3rd
Things to know:
McCartney or Culp? Both are unbeaten. Culp was 4th last year at 138; McCartney was 4th at 152. In reality it doesn’t matter … they are on opposite sides of the bracket and could figure it out in the finals.
Both will have work to do … McCartney could get Xander Hill (returning State Runner-up at 152) in the quarters, Culp could see Deshawn Carty (6th at 152 in 2023) in the semis … obviously we don’t know how it will play out, but those are some likely matchups.
165 lbs.
Favorite: Brayden Mejia (Fred T. Foard) 3A-W 1st
Contenders:
Dominic Blue (Union Pines) 3A-ME 1st
Will Fincher (St. Stephens) 3A-W 2nd
Jake Winyard (North Davidson) 3A-MW 1st
Jonathan Moses (Jacksonville) 3A-E 1st
Darkhorse: Ethan Binckley (Currituck County) 3A-E 2nd
Bracketbuster: Jacob Powell (North Gaston) 3A-W 3rd
Things to know:
Brayden Mejia is the returning State Champ at 152
Dominic Blue is the returning Runner-up at 170
Mejia’s only losses this year have come to Colton Campbell of Hickory Ridge … he and Blue have not met, he has an 11-1 win over Fincher in the region finals last weekend
Dominic Blue beat Troy Shannon 9-1 for the Mideast title
Both Mejia and Blue are on the bottom side of the bracket … Binckley could be a tough draw for Blue in the quarters - assuming he has recovered from the injury that made him default in the East final
175 lbs.
Favorite: Brock Sullivan (Union Pines) 3A-ME 1st
Contenders:
Landon Pope (Pisgah) 3A-W 1st
Kai Reece (First Flight) 3A-E 1st
Kamar Brown (Northside (Jax)) 3A-E 2nd
Mason Kincaid (West Rowan) 3A-MW 1st
Darkhorse: Khadin Boone (Ashbrook) 3A-W 2nd
Bracketbuster: Micah Geoghegan (St. Stephens) 3A-W 3rd
Things to know:
It is always easier to pick a favorite when they have faced one another - otherwise you are left to guess. That’s the case at175.
The only two region champs that have crossed paths this year are Pope and Kincaid with Pope winning at State Duals
Brock Sullivan is the returning State Runner-up at 160, Pope was 3rd at 182 in 2023, Reece and Kincaid were both SQ’s
Kamar Brown - who lost to Reece in the East final (a 3-2 decision) was 5th last year at 170 and could be a threat in the top quarter of the bracket
Landon Pope won a close one over Khadin Boone (9-8) out west and is definite threat in the 3rd quarter of the bracket
190 lbs.
Favorite: Tayshaun Glover (Dudley) 3A-ME 1st
Contenders:
Nicholas Mascolino (Union Pines) 3A-ME 2nd
Avery Rhymer (St. Stephens) 3A-W 1st
Alex Petroff (Concord) 3A-MW 1st
AJ Pile (Croatan) 3A-E 1st
Darkhorse: Jacob Nix (North Buncombe) 3A-W 2nd
Bracketbuster: Dillan Earp (Hibriten) 3A-W 3rd
Things to know:
No one has looked better than Tayshaun Glover this season … Glover was 4th at 195 in 2023, but has taken his game to another level. He beat Mascolino, the returning 182 lb. State Champion, 12-5 in the Mideast final.
Pile and Petroff are both returning SQ’s as are Jacob Nix, Dillan Earp, and others
215 lbs.
Favorite: Xavier Wilson (Eastern Guilford) 3A-ME 1st
Contenders:
Landon Sargent (Cape Fear) 3A-ME 2nd
Reese Meadows (North Henderson) 3A-W 1st
Jamarion Ward (South Johnston) 3A-E 1st
Hunter Miller (West Rowan) 3A-MW 1st
Darkhorse: Elihu Lipscomb (Kings Mountain) 3A-W 2nd
Bracketbuster: Dantrell Williams (Union Pines) 3A-ME 3rd
Things to know:
Wilson who was 5th last year at 220 beat Sargent, who was 2nd last year at 220, 12-4 in the Mideast finals … as a result he has to be the favorite
Hunter Miller, 6th at 190 in 2023, pinned Raymon Gray in the Midwest, Reese Meadows pinned Lipscomb in the West, and Ward beat Brayden Cline 3-0 in the East
Keep an eye on Dallas Bailey who finished 3rd in the East - he was 3rd at 220 in 2023
285 lbs.
Favorite: Nicholas Rodgers (Fike) 3A-E 1st
Contenders:
Elijah Amaya-Perez (Hibriten) 3A-W 1st
Donavan Frederick (Seventy-First) 3A-ME 1st
Trevquan Gary (Person) 3A-ME 2nd
Isaiah King (Jay M. Robinson) 3A-MW 1st
Darkhorse: Landon Michael (Franklinton) 3A-E 2nd
Bracketbuster: Alex Jukoski (Central Academy of Technology and Arts) 3A-MW 3rd
Things to know:
Rodgers, who won the East with a 6-3 decision of Landon Michael, was 3rd at this weight in 2023 and is the highest returning placer
Alex Jukoski was 5th last year, but will need to do some work after taking 3rd in the Midwest
Lots of returning wrestlers with SQ experience in the bracket. Keep an eye on Elijah Amaya Perez who is 38-1 this season with his only loss coming to Geviaunta Walker early in the season