A Fan's Guide to the North Carolina 4A State Tournament
Welcome to the Fan’s Guide for the North Carolina 4A State Tournament … a collaboration with Carolina Takedown Talk.
So what is a Fan’s Guide?
The Fan’s Guide is a look at the tournament as a whole and each individual weight class … from a fan’s perspective. But it is not a prediction of who will win or who will make the podium. In fact, a Fan’s Guide is a little different. It is a look at a few individual pieces from each bracket … they include:
Favorite: the wrestler that enters the tournament as a section champ and has the best shot to claim the top step.
Contenders: a wrestler that finishes 1st or 2nd at sectionals has a decent chance to make the podium.
Darkhorse: a wrestler that finished 2nd, 3rd, or 4th at one of the region tournaments, but could make a run for the top step.
Bracketbuster: a wrestler that finished 3rd or 4th in their region, but could make a run for the podium.
Isn’t that kind of a prediction?
Yes and no. I do identify the favorite, but beyond that I have no idea of who will march through the bracket and claim a title (don’t get me wrong - I’ve watched a lot of wrestling this season so I have an idea of what will happen). I could give you an educated guess about a possible finals match and who will make the podium, but in the world of high school wrestling that is dangerous territory. Few wrestlers (if any) are unbeatable … but we do have past results and past accomplishments on which to make a guess or two. As I read recently, “Confidence in a predictable future, therefore, is the providence of charlatans and fools.” In reality, I am as much of a fan as any of you and like to talk wrestling. I hope each athlete goes out and performs to their ability and we, as fans, get an opportunity to watch some great wrestling.
Remember the sole purpose of the website, twitter, instagram, fan’s guides, pictures, etc. is to promote the sport in the Southeast. Have a great time this weekend, enjoy the wrestling, and best of luck to everyone competing.
NOTE: ALL INFORMATION BELOW IS ASSUMING THAT THE INFORMATION INPUTTED INTO TRACKWRESTLING EITHER BY THE EVENT DIRECTOR OR THE COACHES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SEASON IS CORRECT.
A Look Back to 2023
Let’s take a look first at the team race:
There were actually 78 teams that had a qualifier in 2023 - we took the top 40 in order to take a deeper look at how the team race played out. Here are a few takeaways (and they inform in what we talk about in other parts of the Fan’s Guide):
The correlation between # of qualifiers and team points is quite strong at 0.76. We could draw a scatterplot and determine whether the 0.76 is statistically significant or not, but that is getting in the weeds a bit. The basic way to look at a correlation is whether there is a linear relationship between the two variables (# of qualifiers and team points) … and at 0.76 it is considered by many to be a strong correlation (really anything above 0.70 - keep in mind that a perfect correlation is 1.00). So what does that mean … well typically the more qualifiers you have the more likely you are to score a lot of points. I know - no duh - but every year you have your outliers that push against this idea. Above the outliers are Cornith Holders that had just 2 qualifiers but finished in 8th with 48.5 points (if your two qualifiers are a state champ and a state placer then - well it impacts the strength of this correlation) and South Mecklenburg that had 5 qualifiers (as many as or more than 4 teams that finished in the top 5), but finished in 38th. At a basic level - the takeaway is that the more qualifiers you have the higher you will finish as a team.
11 teams had State Champions and 41 teams had at least one state placer. What that means is the 4A field is fairly diverse. Don’t expect one or two teams to dominate … both Laney and Northwest Guilford had 6 that made the podium. I’d expect something similar this season.
A few other things that stood out include:
Nine of 14 weights were won by Seniors in 2023 and just 2 sophomores won titles (Grant McCord at 106 and Ian Fritz at 132).
52 of 84 (62%) Placers were Seniors. Just 3 of the placers being freshmen (Jace Barrier 2nd at 106, Trevalian Hall 4th at 106, and Thaj Thao 5th at 113).
Returning State Champs are:
Grant McCord of Grimsley (106)
Trevor Freeman of AL Brown (113)
Cameron Stinson of Mallard Creek (120)
Cooper Davis of Cox Mill (126)
Ian Fritz of Topsail (132)
We include all of this background information simply to give you an idea of who to watch and how the team race might play out over the weekend.
Region Dominance
One conversation that is always interesting to have is which region is strongest … well if we simply look at # of state placers from 2023 (and honestly a true look would be going back several years, but we will stick with just last year for this conversation):
If you look at the other classes - you will see the East trails the other regions, but that is not the case in 4A. In fact, in 4A (at least last year) the west had fewer placers than anyone else.
The Mideast did not crown an individual champ, but put 5 in the finals.
4A was fairly even across the board in 2023 - it will be interesting to see how it plays out in 2024.
Sectional Placing Predicts State Place
Just as expected - winning a region title (yes it says section below, but should be region in North Carolina) is almost a necessity to winning a state title.
Interestingly, region champs were dominant with 49 of the 84 spots on the podium belonging to a region champ from the week before. But every year we have someone blow up the bracket … last year the ultimate bracketbuster was Trevor Freeman. Freeman was 3rd in the Midwest, but beat Makya Kerns (2nd in the Mideast), Conner Hibberd (East Champ), Tiaj Thao (West Champ), and Noah Cauble (Midwest Champ) to claim the title.
Who blows up the bracket this year?
The 2024 Team Race
The table below is a list of every qualifier by school, along with their place. So we could talk about a number of different teams, but in reality there are just a handful that have enough to really make a run for a team title. They are discussed below the table.
Davie County took home the dual title, but traditional is a different beast and taming both in the same year is quite an accomplishment. Davie comes in tied with the most qualifiers at 8 with Hoke County and Hough. Laney, Cardinal Gibbons, and Grimsley each have 5 and Mooresville has 6 (but 5 Region Champs). Pine Forest, Mallard Creek, Lumberton, and NW Guilford will all be in the hunt, but they will need some help catching the top teams. Lumberton and Mooresville both have 5 Region Champs and if they can get all 5 on the podium then they will be in the mix, but their margin for error is smaller than the teams with 7 qualifiers. We lean to Davie County as the team favorite, but this one is going to be close.
106 lbs.
Favorite: Ayden Sumners (Ragsdale)
Contenders:
Trevalian Hall (Lumberton)
Brian Trujillo (New Hanover)
Spencer Sterling (Cardinal Gibbons)
Ryder Menard (Lake Norman)
Darkhorse: Jekai Sedgwick (Hoke County)
Bracketbuster: Ayden Arrington (Laney)
Things to Know: Sumners, Hall and Trujillo have all spent most of the year at 113 - they have a few losses on their records, but all have come up at a higher weight. Hall was 4th last year at 106. Sterling and Menard are both returning qualifiers as well.
113 lbs.
Favorite: Trevor Freeman (AL Brown)
Contenders:
Conner Hibberd (Green Hope)
Jace Barrier (Mooresville)
Alex Barnett (New Bern)
Aidan Szewczyk (Davie)
Darkhorse: Dru Kerley (South Iredell)
Bracketbuster: Aiden White (Weddington)
Things to know: Freeman is the defending champ and is unbeaten this season. Barrier was a state runner-up at 106 and Barnett was 3rd at 106. Hibberd is also returning SQ. Kerley was 6th at 106 as well.
120 lbs.
Favorite: Cayden Glass (Davie)
Contenders:
Grant McCord (Grimsley)
Leyton Bean (Olympic)
Jayvion Johnson (Pine Forest)
Giulio Fabriziani (Willow Spring)
Darkhorse: Bradley Yokum (Ragsdale)
Bracketbuster: Brennan Ferguson (Cuthbertson)
Things to know: Cayden Class was 6th last year, but has been superb so far this season. He lost earlier in the year to Yokum, but won the Midwest region over both McCord and Yokum. Grant McCord is the returning 106 lb. State Champion. Yokum was 3rd last year at 113 and finished 3rd in the midwest behind Glass and McCord. Both Johnson and Fabriziani are region champs and returning SQ’s.
126 lbs.
Favorite: Cameron Stinson (Mallard Creek)
Contenders:
Tiaj Thao (Davie)
Tyler Watt (Wake Forest)
Devon Conner (Purnell Swett)
Justin Travers (Pinecrest)
Darkhorse: Gavin Ferguson (Cuthbertson)
Bracketbuster: Jacob McCord (Grimsley)
Things to know: No bigger favorite in North Carolina than Cam Stinson. Unbeaten in his high school career and a 3x State Champ - not sure there is anyone in this bracket that can beat him. Thao and Travers are returning State Placers. Keep an eye on Rion Montaperto of Marvin Ridge.
132 lbs.
Favorite: Cooper Davis (Cox Mill)
Contenders:
Jaylen Bethea (Hoke County)
Tobin McNair (Wakefield)
Eli Pendergrass (NW Guilford)
Austin Green (Mooresville)
Darkhorse: Dylan Drinkard (Mallard Creek)
Bracketbuster: Robert Tellez (Topsail)
Things to know: Well something’s got to give. Cooper Davis is the returning 126 lb. State Champion and his only two losses have come out of state … still he has some hammers in the pakc behind him. Jaylen Bethea is 51-0 with some solid wins and Tobin McNair is 50-1 with his only loss coming to Ryan Mann. Pendergrass was 2nd last year to Stinson at 120 and gave Davis a good match in the Midwest final … the Bethea vs. Pendergrass quarters will be one to watch.
138 lbs.
Favorite: Liam Hickey (Cardinal Gibbons)
Contenders:
Jackson Rowling (Hough)
Jack Gibson (NW Guilford)
Tyler Buonocore (Laney)
Andrew Metters (Cary)
Darkhorse: Noah Murray (Lake Norman)
Bracketbuster: Andrew Davis (Davie)
Things to know:
Seems like we have a showdown coming at 138 … just thankful that Hickey and Rowling are on opposite sides of the bracket. Both were superb at regionals and have been outstanding all season. I don’t believe the two have met so picking a favorite is tough. Keep an eye on Murray vs. Davis in the opening round.
144 lbs.
Favorite: Isaiah Wysong (Laney)
Contenders:
Donovan Edwards (SW Guilford)
Samuel Gantt (Pine Forest)
Austin Emmert (Mooresville)
Frank Bianco (Rolesville)
Darkhorse: Khaliq Butler (Porter Ridge)
Bracketbuster: Beckham Enoch (Cardinal Gibbons)
Things to know: Wysong has looked great since moving in from South Carolina where he won a state title for May River. Edwards has some quality wins (McEachern of Mt Pleasant and Shayden Edwards of East Rowan to name just two) and he is one to watch on the top side. The top quarter with Emmert and Bianco could be the best quarter in the bracket.
150 lbs.
Favorite: Ian Fritz (Topsail)
Contenders:
Cedric Griffin Jr. (Hoke County)
Colin Lutz (Cuthbertson)
Santiago Ruiz Diaz (Providence)
Bailey Wilman (Wake Forest)
Darkhorse: Jake Doherty (Middle Creek)
Bracketbuster: Tristan Cotto (Laney)
Things to know: Fritz is a returning state champ and has been outstanding this season … all three losses have come to out of state competition (two at Beast of the East). He is the favorite, but we’ve been very impressed with Cedric Griffin all season. He draws a tough Bailey Wilman in the quarters - I believe the two have split this year so the quarters could be the rubber match. Cotto is tough in the 3 spot - Mallard Creek’s Carter Pasfield and region champ Colin Lutz have to be ready.
157 lbs.
Favorite: Eli Murray (Lake Norman)
Contenders:
Pete Winterstein (Clayton)
Dylan Pepin (NW Guilford)
Matthew Foil (Lumberton)
Darkhorse: Augustus Elliott (Apex Friendship)
Bracketbuster:
Things to know: Outstanding weight where picking a favorite is like putting them in a bag, shaking it up, and seeing who comes out. Murray was 2nd last year to Fritz and all of his losses this season have come to out of state competition - two at the Knockout and to Baylor’s Hunter Sturgill in the finals of the Southern Slam. He has beaten Foil, but has yet to face Pepin or Winterstein. Winterstein was 6th last year at 145, Foil was 4th at 152, and Pepin was 5th at 132. Watch for Augustus Elliott who draws Winterstein in the quarters … the two have traded wins this season.
165 lbs.
Favorite: Colton Campbell (Hickory Ridge)
Contenders:
Cooper Ogden (Pinecrest)
Connor Reese (TC Roberson)
Jack Harty (Northern Guilford)
Mohammad Jatta (Millbrook)
Darkhorse: Symon Sadler (Green Level)
Bracketbuster: Palmer Smith (Watauga)
Things to know: Few are wrestling better than Colton Campbell is at the moment. He looks primed to make a run for the top step after taking 5th last year at 145. Ogden and Reese are both returning SQ’s as is Symon Sadler who injury defaulted his region final to Ogden. If Sadler is back - the 2nd quarter of the bracket better watch for him. Keep an eye on phenom freshman Jack Harty - I’d venture a guess that he makes the podium.
175 lbs.
Favorite: Hunter Testa (Davie)
Contenders:
Nate Dahlstrom (Alexander Central)
James Ellison (Lumberton)
Aaron Martinez (Topsail)
Luke Shipley (Weddington)
Darkhorse: Giancarlo Evans (Hough)
Bracketbuster: Jalen Ashe (Grimsley)
Things to know: Pretty clear favorite here with returning State Placer Hunter Testa. Testa has really only been pushed by one person this season and that was Tennessee’s Tre McTorry at the Gate City Grapple. Dahlstrom, Ellison, etc. are all returning SQ’s that will give Testa a run, but right now he looks like the man to beat.
190 lbs.
Favorite: Jackson Buck (Lumberton)
Contenders:
Zaid Marjan (Athens Drive)
Brady Raab (Mooresville)
Pierce White (Hoggard)
Edison Morales (Porter Ridge)
Darkhorse: Bo Schiano (Hough)
Bracketbuster: Jiwaun Fleming (Pine Forest)
Things to know: Like Testa at 175, Buck returns looking for the title and has proven himself to be the man to beat this season. He is 53-0 and has two wins over Zaid Marjan (who could be the person he sees in the finals). Keep an eye on the 2nd quarter of the bracket … Morales is the region champ, but both Schiano and Fleming are tough … that is my match to watch in the opening round at 190.
215 lbs.
Favorite: Mason Blue (Laney)
Contenders:
Johnny Merriman (Mooresville)
Geronimo Oxendine (Hoke County)
Derik Mirts (NW Guilford)
Hayden Haynes (McDowell)
Darkhorse: Kiyon Brown (Athens Drive)
Bracketbuster: Brysen Godbey (Davie)
Things to know: The wrestling gods must be looking down on 4A - we’ve had a number of potential really good matchups look like they will be in the finals instead of the semis (based on the formula). The same is true at 215 with Mason Blue and Johnny Merriman. That’s not to say there aren’t pitfalls along the way with region champs Oxendine (who was 6th last year at 220) and Mirts along with Hayden Haynes and others. There are two outstanding first round matchups here with Haynes vs. Morgan and Brown vs. Godbey.
285 lbs.
Favorite: Deondre Johnson (Clayton)
Contenders:
Jalen Terry-Winston (Lumberton)
Damien Couture (Hickory Ridge)
Ben Bartelt (Apex)
Itachi Duvernay (TC Roberson)
Darkhorse: Alexzander Little (Ragsdale)
Bracketbuster: Chaz Knox (AL Brown)
Things to know: Based on returning placers - this weight is wide open because there are none. But Deondre Johnson has shown that he is the man to beat here … he is 44-0 on the season and has beaten Jalen Terry-Winston, Alexzander Little, and others. Although I think he pulls the toughest quarter with Ben Bartelt and Chaz Knox. Keep an eye on Little - he has faced some solid competition this year and that should serve him well.