A Fan's Guide to the NC 4A State Duals
We have reached the Elite 8 and if we believe the ranking we have a couple of “Cinderellas” still dancing after the opening weekend of the state series. Because the NCHSAA uses rankwrestlers.com for their seeding (or at the very least the separation in the bracket - we have included their current ranking below). Like other Fan’s Guides … we are not in the business of predictions - interested in that in North Carolina? Visit Carolina Takedown Talk on Rokfin. Rhett and Ryan are happy to give you their two cents on who they think will win it all.
A Fan’s Guide is a little different. So what is a Fan’s Guide?
The Fan’s Gudie is a look at the tournament as a whole (at least from this point moving forward since two rounds have already been wrestled and there wasn’t enough time to provide this information after brackets were released on Thursday and before wrestling happened on Saturday) … from a fan’s perspective. But it is not a prediction of who will hoist the tophy on Saturday.
A Fan’s Guide is a little different. It is a look at a few individual pieces from each bracket … they include:
Favorite: the team (of the 8 that remain) that look (at least on paper) as the team to beat.
Darkhorse: a team a little off the radar … everyone seems to be talking about this team or that and this team has all the pieces to surprise some people.
The most in-depth part of the dual Fan’s Guide is a look at the possible lineups for the 8 teams and this next matchup which will happen this Wednesday. We try to breakdown each of those matchups and tell you which team might have an edge … projecting to possible final 4 matchups or the finals more difficult - so like each team below we will focus on the next match. The favorite, the darkhorse, and the overall summary gives you an idea of what we think might happen the rest of the week.
First the Bracket:
Overall:
Favorite: Northwest Guilford
NW Guilford enters as the top seed on the “West” part of the bracket and is currently ranked #1 by rankwrestlers.com in their dual team rankings. They have had some outstanding dual wins this season, but probably none bigger than a 43-22 victory over 3A #1 Foard in late December. Still a matchup with Mooresville looms.
Darkhorse: Hickory Ridge
Hickory Ridge has already proven they can beat anyone in the bracket with a 36-33 win over #2 West Forsyth in the Round of 16. They draw #3 Piedmont (and then either #1 NW Guilford or #4 Mooresville) so the path is far from easy, but this team has some hammers.
Summary: Northwest Guilford has looked outstanding all season and if you asked the average 4A coach - I’d bet they would get the lions share of the votes as the team to beat, but that doesn’t mean anything. A very good Mooresville team will look to knock them off right off the scale. Laney is always super tough and is the #2 team in the East (#7 in the rankings) and everyone immediately seems to talk about the West or Laney and few have mentioned how good this New Bern team is that sits in the #1 spot (and #5 in the rankings).
New Bern is also unbeaten on the season with their best win coming 38-37 over Croatan. At the end of the day - most duals come down to a few things … 1) matchups - coaches being able to create the matchups they want, 2) bonus points - whether you are getting them for your team or limiting them for another team - both play a huge role in which teams ends up on top, and 3) which weight the dual begins … this is probably the least well understood, but is huge. Just look at any duals you have attended that were close - momentum matters (especially in matches that are toss-ups).
Elite 8 Matchups:
NOTE … All rankings below are rankwrestlers.com rankings
Gibbons has the hammers in Hickey, Gundry, Tracy, and New, but 4 wrestlers won’t win a dual … others will need to step up if Gibbons is going to beat New Bern. New Bern must take care of things up top from 182-285 … if Gibbons can take one of those or limit any bonus then this match could be close.
New Bern Edge: 7
106, 120, 132, 182, 195, 220, 285
Cardinal Gibbons Edge: 4
113, 126, 152, 170
Toss-ups: 3
Best match of the dual should be #5 Hunter Gundry vs. #9 Har Htoo … it leans to Gibbons, but expect a good/close match - which might be all New Bern needs
Lumberton is tough at 106 and 133 and then from Foil to Buck (152-182). Laney is also tough from 152-182 and that could make this a really good dual for the fan because it might be the hammers decide who wins this one.
Lumberton Edge: 2
106, 113
Laney Edge: 5
132, 145, 160, 195, 220
Toss-ups: 7
Obviously the most interesting match to watch is #1 vs. #2 at 182 with Jackson Buck and Alex Hopper. Don’t be surprised if Lumberton can limit the Laney’s bonus points at 132, 160, and 220 that we have a dual that comes down to two unranked wrestlers.
On paper this dual looks outstanding. Strength vs. Strength at so many weights … don’t be surprised to see a team bump one hammer to meet another (for example; Freeze to meet Pepin or Pepin up to meet Merriman) if the dual is on the line. Don’t be surprised if we see Vermilyea wrestle 160, Pepin at 170, and then Attridge up at 182 … but so many things could happen that would either force that to happen or negate it from happening. This is a given - NW Guilford needs to make a run from 126-145 and they need bonus … that could really dictate what happens from that point forward in terms of matchups.
NW Guilford Edge: 5
126, 132, 138, 145, 160
Mooresville Edge: 7
113, 120, 152, 170, 182, 195, 220
Toss-ups: 2
Perhaps the best matchup that is most likely to happen (and I only say that because I don’t know if we will see Pepin vs. Freeze or Merriman) is at 106 between #2 Kyle Pruden and #4 Jace Barrier.
This could be a tale of two duals … Piedmont is tough from 113-132 and Hickory Ridge has hammers from 152-182 and at 220 with Brooker. If Hickory needs him I’d expect we could see Brooker even go up to 285 to wrestle Goodman (even though Brooker is a true 195). Don’t be surprised if an unranked vs. unranked matchup decides who moves on.
Piedmont Edge: 6
113, 120, 126, 132, 145, 285
Hickory Ridge Edge: 5
152, 160, 170, 182, 220
Toss-ups: 3