A Fan's Guide to the Tennessee State Duals
Overall notes:
Remember this is a Fan’s Guide to the state dual tournament. For those of you that are less knowledgable regarding the specifics of duals vs. tournaments … duals are like other traditional sports where one team competes directly against another to accumulate the most points. Matchups at weight classes can play a huge role in the outcome and the ability of coaches to “move around” wrestlers to create favorable matchups can be critical to the outcome.
Order: Most of the time the dual begins at 106 and proceeds through the weight classes and concludes at heavyweight. That is not mandatory and the dual can start anywhere in the 14 weight classes … so if the dual starts at 145 it will proceed through the weight classes until it finishes at 138. As you can see in the example below … the 7A State Final began at 285 and then concluded at 220.
Scoring: An individual match is scored just like it always is … 2 points for a takedown, etc. The dual is scored the same way you may have seen throughout the season … but in case you were confused here is a brief idea of how it is done:
A fall is worth 6 pts
A technical fall (difference between individual wrestlers is 15 or more points) is worth 5 pts.
A major decision (difference between individual wrestlers is 8 or more, but under the 15) is worth 4 points.
A regular decision (basically a win without a fall, tech fall, or major), is worth 3 points.
Teams can be deducted points for a variety of reasons, but I won’t get into that.
Below is an example from last year’s 1A-2A State Consolation Finals between Greeneville and Hixson (I used this as an example of how bonus points really impacted the team score).
Outcome: The team with the most points after all 14 weight classes have wrestled is the winner and advances to the next round. The losing team is eliminated.
Why is there more than 1 name at a weight for a team? As I stated previously, the ability of coaches to move wrestlers around to create the most favorable matchups can have a huge impact on the outcome of the dual. The line-ups you see below are a possible lineup based on where wrestlers have competed during the 2019-2020 season … there are no guarantees that is the weight a wrestler will compete at this weekend.
Class 3A Bracket
The 3A bracket packs a punch with teams like Cleveland, Bradley Central, Wilson Central, Dobyns Bennett, Blackman, Science Hill, etc. Cleveland has worked their way into the national conversation of top 50 teams in 2019-2020 and have to be considered the favorites. The thing that is interesting about duals, as I mentioned previously, are the potential matchups and the opportunities that exist for coaches to create the most favorable matchups for their teams.
Let’s take a look at each quarter of the 3A bracket to better understand the team matchups and some possible individual matchups.
Note: Brown = 2019 State Qualifier; Blue = 2019 State Placer; Yellow = 2019 State Champ
Top Quarter:
Cleveland vs. Clarksville
Cleveland has 2 returning State Champs in Jackson Bradford and Trae McDaniel. Clarksville counters with Christian Isbell, also a returning Champ. Clarksville’s Gabriel Smith is 39-9 on the year and finished 4th in 2019. But it is Cleveland’s depth that poses the biggest problem for Clarksville … Cleveland has 5 returning State Qualifiers in Burns Meagher, Garrett Stevenson, Robert (Cael) Laxton, Zach Brezna, and Ashton Davis.
The 3 weight classes I’m most interested in watching are:
106 Bentley Ellison vs. Devin Lozdoski
195 William Harris vs. Preston Ray
170 Zach Brezna vs. Gabriel Smith
If Clarksville is going to hang in … they will need each of the three weights to go their way and get bonus points.
Blackman vs. Sevier County
Sevier County has 5 returning 2019 State Qualifiers. Blackman has 4 qualifiers plus two hammers in returning Placers Brooks Sacharczyk and Bowdy Boyce. You may notice that Blackman doesn’t have a 285 listed … no worries - Boyce has wrestled up at the weight all season and (if he weighs-in at 220) can be an important piece to move around in a dual to get the most points for Blackman. Blackman has the edge in the dual and Sevier County will need to pick up some bonus points and not yield any if they are going to advance.
3 matches to watch:
152 Hunter Fromm vs. Cole Hays
170 Dylon Grower vs. Anthony Gomez
195 Omar Fabian vs. Jaylan Hughes
Bradford down at 113 is not a returning qualifier or placer (as far I could find), but the kid is a hammer and will be an important piece for Blackman as they work to advance through the bracket.
Potential Quarter:
I do not like to look ahead because you never know what will happen, but in each of these I will tell you who is the likely quarterfinal matchup. I could be 100% wrong … so take this with a grain of salt.
On paper, Cleveland vs. Blackman looks like a ton of fun. I’d expect a back-and-forth match with 3 things being key: 1) bonus points - who gets them and who doesn’t, 2) how does Blackman’s middleweights wrestle vs. Meagher, Stevenson, and Laxton, and 3) can Blackman get wins at potentially huge matches … 113, 170, and 220.
2nd Quarter:
Arlington vs. Independence
As a fan these are the matchups I love. Both Arlington and Independence are solid squads and aren’t likely to claim the state title in the end, but they come to scrap and this looks like a really good matchup. Arlington has 7 2019 state qualifiers in their lineup and Independence has 3. It looks like Arlington has the edge, but this there are some intriguing individual matchups in this one that could determine who moves on in the championship bracket.
3 matches I’m watching:
138 Hayden Baudoin vs. Tanner Willett
152 Luke Krepela vs. Maverick Marmol
182 Chase Rozell vs. Jacob Oxford
Don’t be surprised if a match like Austin Parks vs. Philip Shand at 113 plays an important role In the outcome … looks like a toss up and 6 points in either direction could be important in the outcome.
Maryville vs. Dobyns Bennett
The middle of the Dobyns Bennett lineup is super tough and will pose a problem for any team they meet this weekend. Watkins and Hurst are both returning 2019 placers and Whitley, Mitchell, and Morrisette x2 are returning qualifiers. In fact, Tre and Clint Morrisette have been on fire … as far as I can tell each only has one loss on the year (and Tre’s loss to Great Bridge’s Kolby Allred at the Indian Classic is nothing to hang your head about … Allred is one of the best 160’s in the SE if not the country). Maryville counters with 5 2019 state qualifiers and they will need all the points that Kyle, Hampton-Coffin, Johnson, Keough, and Sinclair can give them if they are going to get the win.
3 matches to watch:
106 Coen Lovin vs. Cannon Mullins
285 Maddox Stott vs. Caleb Burleson
120 Michael Colligan vs. Greyson Cunningham
Why these 3 when you’ve got potential matchups with Hampton-Coffin and Watkins as well as Johnson vs. Lemons and Keough vs. Clint Morrisette. The reason is that Maryville must win those toss-up type matches if they are going to have a shot at beating Dobyns-Bennett.
Potential Quarter:
I really hesitate to pick because I don’t know who will win the Arlington vs. Independence matchup. I feel Dobyns Bennett has a clearer path to the win in their dual. As I stated previously, whoever encounters DB will need to exploit the lower and upper weights … I don’t think any team is walking away with many points between 126-170. DB will only go as far as their 5 freshmen (Mullins, Armstrong, Cunningham, Rhoten, and Smith), along with Greer, Burleson and Justin Lemons will carry them. Of course I could be completely wrong … as a Fan kick back and enjoy this quarter of the bracket - it should produce some good matches.
3rd Quarter
Centennial vs. Houston
Centennial and Houston both have 4 returners with individual experience on the big stage … interestingly these two teams met in the opening round a year ago with Centennial taking the win 54-20 before falling to Cleveland in the quarters. I don’t spend a ton of time looking back at what happened a year ago because many of the teams have very different lineups and matchups could be very different as well. Centennial appears to have the edge again in 2020, but these 3 individual matches could be important to the outcome:
106 Shahzod Jaffarhonov vs. Connor Baltz. Baltz lost to Macias a year ago - but is back at 106 and will look to get points for Houston out fo the gate (assuming we start at 106).
138 Leo Gearhart vs. Nathan Kinnear … two individuals ranked in the top 10 according to Rankwrestlers.com
182 Jacob Knight vs. Cade Young - #5 and #6 according to Rankwrestlers.com and both are returning State Qualifiers.
Ables x2 and Suddeath should get points for Centennial (although Suddeath might have a tough one with Mathis). Poston and Harris should get points for Houston. Lots of interesting matchups outside those 5.
Knoxville Halls vs. Oakland
Halls return 8 2019 State Qualifiers. Oakland has 4. Many of the 8 from Halls (Wright, Kiser, Elkins x2) have made the individual state tournament for multiple years. That probably gives them the edge in this dual. But it really come down to head-to-head matches that will determine the winner and there are 4 to watch):
106 Ian Wright vs. Chas Stokes
120 Jeremy Peters vs. Tyler Vanderheyden
160 Cainon Ekins vs. Dejob Glaster
220 Brandon Elkins vs. Kameron Bingham
If those matchups are split then the reaming like Hutchison vs. Lillard and Linderman and Keating could decide the outcome.
Potential Quarter:
I think this is a toss up … I lean to Centennial vs. Knoxville Halls, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see Centennial vs. Oakland (Houston might have a more narrow path to victory than any of the others). Either of those quarterfinal matchups is fireworks … but honestly each of these 4 teams must focus on their first match or this conversation is moot.
Bottom Quarter
Heritage vs. Bradley Central
Bradley Central sits in the bottom quarter and will be a tough out for anyone on the bottom side of the bracket. Last year BC downed Halls, Wilson Central, and Science Hill to setup a rematch with Cleveland. This year’s path doesn’t look much different, but anyone at BC would tell you … last year is last year and this year’s team must beat whoever is front of them (no looking back on past wins or losses). Heritage appears to be overmatched, but they do return 4 2019 state qualifiers in Beason, Teaster, Davis, and Norris. Keep an eye on these 3 matches:
113 Anthony Beason vs. Ethan or Easton Lipsey
132 Hunter Davis vs. Gavin Hughes
182 Wade Casto vs. Cody McDaniel
145 could also be a fun one to watch. Bradley has the hammers down low and up top and it would be surprising if they didn’t down Heritage and setup a meeting with Wilson Central or Science Hill.
Science Hill vs. Wilson Central
Best first round matchup in 3A is Science Hill vs. Wilson Central. These two perennial powers meet in the opening round and it should be a barnburner. Both teams have 4 2019 State Placers. Science Hill also has 5 2019 Qualifiers and Wilson Central has 2. Both of these teams have the ability to be in the finals on Saturday night - so who has the edge? On paper it looks like Science Hill does, but don’t let the colors above fool you. Bodo is a returning qualifier at 106, but Warnock has been an absolute hammer this year and probably has the edge in that matchup.
The dual will probably come down to the best-on-best matchups with:
138 Braxton Mann vs. Alan Fort
145 Jahkye Aples vs. Steven Fisak
152 Joseph Frye vs. Levi Stone
160 Jared Harter vs. Anthony Pyron
deciding the outcome. The one thing that jumps off the page when looking at these two teams is the # of underclassmen in Wilson Central’s lineup. Three freshmen and 6 sophomores … if they are going to beat Science Hill it will likely have to come from the babyface brigade (Fetters and Stone are the only two seniors in the lineup).
Possible Quarters:
Best quarter in the bracket. Science Hill vs. Wilson Central will be lights out. Winner will probably get Bradley Central and that’s just to get to the semis. BC beat Science Hill earlier this year, but I don’t believe they have faced Wilson Central in 2019-2020. If you are a casual fan and can only watch one quarter of this bracket … tune into Mat 8 at 3 pm on Friday afternoon and then again at 7 pm Friday evening.
I will attempt to write an update on Friday evening after the quarters and previewing the semis. Don’t sleep on Dobyns Bennett (if any team surprises the field) - they would be my darkhorse team to surprise everyone.
Class 1A-2A
1A-2A is always super exciting at the State Duals and 2020 should be no different. Pigeon Forge marched to the title a year ago with wins over Greenbrier (45-27), Fairview (46-33), and Nolensville (59-18). But there were at least five matches (including Greeneville vs. Hixson in the consi finals) that came down to the final match. Expect similar fireworks this weekend.
Top half of the bracket features four outstanding teams in Pigeon Forge, Alcoa, Greenbrier, and Hixson. We will take a look at each match and then the possible semifinal matches (there is no time between the first round and the semis to update the Fan’s Guide).
Note: Brown = 2019 State Qualifier; Blue = 2019 State Placer; Yellow = 2019 State Champ
Pigeon Forge vs. Alcoa
Pigeon Forge was super tough in their run to a title in 2019 and there is nothing to indicate that 2020 will be any different. A trio of sophomores (Dalon, Foreman, and Parton) lead the way and that means this team will likely only get tougher in the years to come (but that is another conversation). Alcoa counters with 2 2019 State Placers (Wimbley and Brown) along with 3 Qualifiers (Jones, Carter, and Kinder). It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that Alcoa is tough up top (they have been for so many years) … but having two exceptional heavyweights in Williams and Kinder doesn’t give you flexibility like it does in the middle of the lineup. Williams is unbeaten as far as I can tell and Kinder is a returning qualifier as a Senior, but neither has wrestled at 220 … so that’s a challenge. Keep an eye on these 3 matches …
106 - Hunter Gentry vs. Gordan McCall - both are ranked in the top 10 and Alcoa needs a win here to balance out some of Pigeon Forge’s hammers in the middle.
152/160 - Jason Heth vs. Ryan Wimbley or Anthony Jones - Yes Wimbley is a 152, but Alcoa may have to give up 6 to Dalon in order to get points at 160, 170, and 182. That might be necessary to make up for losing points down low (113-145).
195 - Ethan Sutton vs. Kambell Brown
The weight where this dual begins and what happens on the way to 152 will push Alcoa to make some decisions. Dalon is super tough and you never want to give up 6, but Pigeon Forge is unbelievably tough between 120 and 145 … and it will be up to a pair of freshmen and sophomores to keep Alcoa close during that stretch.
Greenbrier vs. Hixson
Hixson dropped their opening match in last year’s tournament and had to fight back through to finish 4th (tough losses to Fairview and Greeneville and a tough win over Signal Mountain). Hixson did beat Greenbrier a year ago, but led 45-12 before giving up the final 24 points on forfeits. So what does that have to do with this dual? Really nothing. McCurdy kicked things off a year ago and Leffew, Miller, and Lewis pushed Hixson to a huge lead after 4 matches. On paoer, this match looks closer, but it might depend where they start. Keep an eye on these matches …
106 - Dalton Watson vs. Chris Lagorio
145 - Brady Holt vs. Chris Rogers
170 - Brandon Felts vs. Jonas Vandergriff
Greenbrier needs all three of these matches if they want to beat Hixson. McCurdy, Pacetti, Mayes, Smith, Leffew, and Lewis should give Hixson points … how many will bonus? Could Greenbrier pull an upset in one of those? Greenbrier must make the most of their opportunities.
Possible Semifinal:
It would be a huge surprise if we didn’t see Pigeon Forge vs. Hixson on Friday evening. So what would a Pigeon Forge vs. Hixson matchup look like? Well if we take what look like possible lineups …
We get one heckuva a dual that could go many different ways. Cable and Gumlick are very tough freshmen down low … it would be interesting to see if Hixson would bump Leffew and Lewis to try to match them (but then you might give up 3-6 to Snell at 113). Hixson should be favored up top with Pacetti and McCurdy - so you might be looking at Parton vs. Burton, Heth vs. Smith, etc. as the determining matches on who wins. Regardless this would be an absolutely fantastic dual … if both teams take care of business in the opening round this match will be on Mat 1 at 7 pm.
The bottom half of the bracket features Greeneville vs. Fairview and Signal Mountain vs. Nolensville. If you recall 2019 - Nolensville beat Greeneville 35-34 and then hammered Signal Mountain to make the finals. Greeneville bounced back from that 1st round loss to beat Fairview 37-33 and then Hixson 36-34 to finish 3rd. Obviously what happened a year ago has little bearing on 2020, but it does give you an idea of how close these teams are to one another. 2020 should be no different.
Greeneville vs. Fairview
On paper it looks as if Fairview matches up pretty well with Greeneville. I’d expect Fairview wants Mitchell or Bennett to avoid with Cannedy (but that doesn’t guarantee them a net positive in terms of points. Hunter Jonson has already pinned Mitchell this season, but Bennett has pinned Lowery). There are several toss up matches that should be huge in the outcome of the dual … these are the ones I’m watching:
106 - Josue Castillo vs. Joshua Helm - both teams want this weight and it should be close … I don’t believe they have wrestled this year and I don’t put much stock in the same opponent theory. Keep an eye on these freshmen.
120 Todd Wallin vs. Keegan Seaver - another toss up.
160 Spencer Schofield vs. Marco Pukl
Honestly most of the matchups throughout this dual are a toss up. Malachi Bennett is a tough freshman, but Cannedy is an absolute hammer (and the two haven’t crossed paths this season). Can Cannedy get Greeneville bonus points at 145? Will Fairview win at 132 and 138 or will they split again? Hunter Mason is a hammer for Greeneville at 126, but he gets returning qualifier Derrick … will he get the fall again and put 6 on the board for Greeneville like he did 2 weeks ago? Expect this one to go back and forth. Don’t be surprised to see Clevenger at 195 (or 220) depending on where they need him.
Signal Mountain vs. Nolensville
Signal Mountain vs. Nolensville - again. The two teams met, kind of, a couple of weeks ago in the Region 3 Round Robin (different than a straight dual so difficult to know how the coaches might move things around), but it is informative. Signal Mountain outpointed Nolensville 516 to 452.5 (as they were the two top teams).
So how did each team do in the head-to-head matches (when they cross paths):
106 Uhorchuk (SM) got the fall over Dorsett
126 Lippincott (Nolensville) pinned Shriner
132 Albritton (SM) got the fall but not on Cole Smith
138 Shipley (SM) won by injury but not vs. Walker (Sinner)
145 Muschel (SM) beat Vogelpohl 5-3
152 Channell (N) beat Gallant 7-4
160 Worley (SM) won but not over Rhodes
170 Marco Ibrahim (N) beat Thompson 5-0 (So will it be Bryant or Ibrahim at 170 for Nolesville?)
182 Montpool (N) won by forfeit over Lindsay
285 Hilke (SM) pinned Short
What does all of that mean? Well there were several head-to-head matches and 6 went to Signal Mountain (4 went to Nolensville). It appears Signal Mountain has the edge, but this should be another close one. Bonus points, matchups, etc. will be important to the outcome.
Possible Semifinal:
Making an educated guess of who will be in the semifinals is fraught with challenges and I hesitate to give you my opinion because I simply don’t know. I think both of the duals on the bottom half of the bracket will be close and any of the four teams could move into the Friday semis. That said, if we see Nolensville vs. Fairview - we do have 2020 history to give us some perspective.
A couple of weeks ago Fairview beat Nolensville 40-27 (and that was with Fairview forfeiting at 220). Wins by Morrill at 113, Seaver at 120, and Clevenger at 195 were huge in getting Fairview the win that day. Notice that Clevenger was down at 195 in a battle of 2019 state placers (to beat Wagner 9-8).
The number of permutations of team matchups and then individual matchups is too much to contemplate for the Fan’s Guide. Regardless - all 3 of these matches … the 2 first round matches and the match with the two winners should be outstanding for the fan.
Division II
Division II has long been the domain of Baylor, McCallie, Christian Brother, and Father Ryan …in fact the only team to break into the semis besides those 4 teams in the last 5 years was Montgomery Bell Academy in 2015. Over the last 5 years - Baylor has won twice, Father Ryan twice, and Christian Brothers once. I’d expect that your betting odds are pretty good if you take those four teams again in this weekend.
I’m not going to spend time previewing the first round because it would be a surprise if any of the top 4 teams lost … Montgomery Bell Academy and Brentwood Academy both have some very good wrestlers and will test Father Ryan and McCallie in individual matches, but the dual shouldn’t be in doubt. That said watch for Logan Spell vs. Alex Whitworth at 160 (#1 vs. #2 according to RankWrestlers.com) … Whitworth is nationally-ranked - we will get to see if Spell is close to that level (possibly … they may not wrestle if McCallie is up by a lot when that match comes around).
Note: Blue = 2019 State Placer; Yellow = 2019 State Champ
Top Half of the Bracket
Christian Brothers vs. Chattanooga Christian
Brentwood Academy vs. McCallie
As I said previously … I am not going to spend time previewing the first round matches. Brentwood will give us a couple of good individual matches but it would be a huge surprise if we didn’t see Christian Brothers vs. McCallie in the semis. CB vs McCallie seems to be always a tight dual and like others will come down to winning toss-up matches, getting bonus points, and not giving up bonus. These are the matches I will be watching Friday night:
106 - Wills Bronson vs. Kenneth Haney
126 - Dayne Dalrymple vs. Emory Taylor
182 - Theo Sewell vs. Riley Looper
Whitworth, Cagle, and Howard should give McCallie major points, CB should counter with points from Lee, Bowers x2, and Anthony. If that is the case then the 3 matches above along with matches like Ramos vs. Ridings at 113, Codemo vs. Braman at 120, and Billingsley vs. Millirons at 195 will determine the outcome.
Bottom Half of the Bracket:
Father Ryan vs. Montgomery Bell Academy
Baylor vs. Battle Ground Academy
Baylor is probably the best team in Tennessee regardless of class. They are ranked nationally and some after made the claim they are the best team in the Southeast. That last one is a bit of a stretch for me when you have Lake Highland Prep still chugging along at #4 in the national polls. Regardless Baylor is a hammer and it will be a tall task for Father Ryan to knock them off.
Father Ryan vs. MBA should go to Father Ryan, but MBA will put up a fight. That said what does a Father Ryan vs. Baylor match look like? Baylor has the edge … so which matches must Father Ryan win to pull off the upset (and I think most people would consider it an upset)?
120 - Calvin Eason vs. Kade Hartline
145 - Ben Marchetti or Andrew Laden vs. Chase Radpour - With Wesnofske at 132 and Pitts at 138 - that should keep Horst and Dendy at those weights. Horst and Dendy are favorites, but it looks tough for them to bump up to get 6 at 145 with Dendy.
152 - Lawrence Madson vs. Anthony Mannella
160 - Jacorey Miller vs. Omaury Alvarez
170 - Andrew Nelson vs. Faulk, Garriques, or Motley - flexibility at 170 gives Baylor the option of bumping both Duffy and Harper up.
220 - Parker Peterson vs. Barre Chambers
That gives FR a possible 6 matches and Baylor 8. Baylor will almost certainly get bonus points down low so two or three of those six matches must include bonus if FR is going to stay close. Win those matches and get the win at 285 with Elijah Wilson or Brock Carlson vs. 4th ranked Samuel Christensen and you have a shot. Honestly it would be a tough match to pull out, but Father Ryan has done it before. As a fan … If the match is close look for the coaches to work to get the some interesting matchups. The most interesting is the possibility of David Harper vs. Parker Peterson at 220.