Seeding Super 32 in 2022 ... the good, the bad and the ugly
Seeding is such a fine art. It requires a nice balance between the left side of your brain and right side of your brain. The difference between logic, facts, and linear thinking and intuition, imagination and holistic thinking.
What? Yep I could hear that.
The left-sided brain people are currently scoffing at the idea of intuition or imagination being part of this process.
As someone that lives with numbers and logic, it pains me to say, but it is true, intuition and imagination are certainly part of the process … and it should be.
Few of these wrestlers compete against one another … that simple fact means it is far more subjective than analytical people would like for it to be. It is more subjective than I’d like it to be.
But that’s the nature of the beast.
Aren’t there meaningful criteria to use? How about State Titles? or their National Ranking?
Sure we could say that you shouldn’t be considered if you haven’t won a state title previously. But what about those that only wrestle national preps? Or how do you handle the 62 State Champions that reside in the 120 lb. weight class?
Are you okay with the subjectivity when comparing state titles? Say the relative worth of a Pennsylvania State Title versus a New Jersey State Title or a Georgia 5A title being more valuable than a Georgia 2A title?
How bout national rankings … there’s no debate about the quality of Flowrestling’s rankings vs. MatScouts or someone else’s. (That’s sarcasm for those you that struggle with that.)
I could go further, but I think, whether you agree or not, that we can agree that the seeding process is fraught with challenges.
Hence the title of the article … The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.
For this article we will look back at 2022 in an effort to inform what seeding we might see in 2023 (yes the pre-seeds are out, but they may change … given what we’ve seen in the past they could change a lot). I don’t envy Willie and his task of seeding this tournament … it isn’t an easy challenge.
Before we get into what happened last year … I think it is important to understand my philosophy as it relates to seeding.
Specific numbers (seeds) are far less important than how the bracket is constructed as a whole
What I mean by this is … get the best kids away from one another so that we have the best opportunity to get the quarters, semis, and finals correct. I could go into detail about some of the awful seeding I’ve seen, but that would derail us from the point. The main objective is that the two best kids shouldn’t meet before the quarters in brackets the size we see at Super 32 (and not before the semis or finals in other sized brackets). If they do - we have failed in what I believe is the most important objective.
Use accolades as one marker or criteria, not a strict measure.
Does a national ranking, a 2023 state title or anything else mean something? Absolutely. But it shouldn’t be used as a strict measure of quality. I think many of us want it to be, but I’ve seen firsthand that a state placer in one state is a far better wrestler than a state champion in another state. Do we have biases? Absolutely. And those measures help keep those in check, but recognizing our own biases is an important first step (and requires a level of intuition).
A group should seed the event.
This isn’t a shot at Willie (for those of you uninitiated … my reference is to Willie Saylor - formerly of Flo and now runs Intermat and MatScouts). Willie knows a great deal about these kids. Who should be considered “seed-worthy” and who should not. But, as I said in my previous bullet, everyone has biases. Willie is no different. As a check on that bias - he should have a group of people helping to seed the event. Will it ensure there are no mistakes? No, of course not. Will it help the process, yes.
Separation requires more than just separating the top athletes.
Huh? Basically I’m saying that if I were doing it I’d put athletes into tiers. A top tier (top 16), a second tier (17-32), and then use specific markers to help separate the rest of the field. This seems like a painstaking process and perhaps wouldn’t work, but this is what I have in my head … at 113 we have 165 wrestlers registered (a few will change weights, but not a huge number). 40 are State Champs, 65 are State Placers and the remaining 60 did not place at their state tournament in 2023. The 60 are simple (with maybe an exception or two based on placing in Fargo or wrestling at national preps instead) in that they are drawn in. But the 105 can be put into tiers and separated from one another. This would be a time consuming process and, like I said before, may not be feasible, but it would be the right thing to do.
How about the idea “Seeds don’t matter?”
It is a nice sentiment and one I used when I coached to motivate a wrestler, but it isn’t valid. It is why USA Wrestling now uses an ELO system (the PIN Index) for all of their athletes including those at the senior level. If seeds don’t matter, then why not draw everyone in and just let it play out in a random way? By undertaking the idea of seeding a tournament - you are saying you value the idea of separating the best athletes. If that’s the case, then why not do it right?
Why am I discussing the 2022 Seeds now?
Early next week we will breakdown the pre-seeds for this year’s Super 32 day (can’t do the seeds because they won’t be released until the day of after weigh-ins). This is simply context for that article which will be published in the plus part of the website … along with Scrappy’s picks.
So let’s jump to the good, the bad, and the ugly.
Overall, the seeding last year was quite good.
Overall the seeding was quite good at this level of a tournament. 113, 145, and 170 were the only weights where things did not go as planned (at least once we got to the quarters … 145 and 170 were good until that point). Below is a quick look at each weight, where they were seeded, where they finished, and who made the Round of 16 and Quarters. Just eight wrestlers made the podium that were unseeded … Nathan Carnes (NC) at 285, Devin Kendrix (IN) at 220, Myles Johnson (OH) at 195, Ty Eise (CO) at 170, Dominic Federici (PA) at 160), Tahir Parkins (PA) at 126), and Patrick O’Keefe (NJ) at 113.
NOTE: A (1) in the Round of 16 or in the Quarters means they made it to that round, a (0) or if It is blank then they did not.
106 lbs.
7 of the 8 seeds made the podium
12 of 15 seeds made the Round of 16
7 of 8 made the quarters
Exceptionally good seeding - there will always be upsets … Like Kenny losing or others at other weights, but for the most part the 106’s were seeded very well.
113 lbs.
I wouldn’t say the seeding at 113 was bad, but it certainly wasn’t as good as most other weights.
6 of the top 8 seeds made the podium - Degennaro at #11 and unranked Patrick O’Keefe spoiled the party for some others.
11 of the 16 seeds made the Round of 16
6 of the 8 made the quarters … again not bad and Knox vs. Bassett was 1 vs. 2 in the finals.
120 lbs.
Very good seeding in that 14 of the 15 made the Round of 16 with 7 of 8 making the quarters
The consis weren’t necesararily as kind to the some, but that happens with 6 of the top 8 making the podium
126 lbs.
Was the seeding the problem or just underperformance by a number of wrestlers?
When 5 of your 13 seeded wrestlers don’t make the Round of 16 that’s a problem. The top 4 held together and finished the top 4 in the tournament … beyond that it was chaotic.
132 lbs.
Overall pretty good seeding. Same question about Nini as we have at 126 … overseeded or simply didn’t wrestle to his level? But Nini was the outlier at 132. Nearly every other seed made the Round fo 16, 7 of the top 8 seeds made the quarters and that was the same for those that made the podium. Sure Larking was seeded 4 and finished 6th, Mantanona was seeded 7th and finished 2nd … but like I said above … I’m not worried about that. The quarters, semis, bloodround at 132 were outstanding matches where the top wrestlers changed spots … slightly.
138 lbs.
Do we think Willie missed at 138? Hard to say that … Manville, Evanitsky, and Brooks didn’t place but that seems like an anomaly. Through the Round of 16 (14 of 16) he was good and 3 quarterfinalists (Manville, Evanitsky, and Rivera) didn’t end up on the podium. On the backside … lower seeds Collin Arch and Cam Catrabone won against higher seeds (Catrabone beat Evanitsky, McCallister beat Manville). Catrabone not making the Round of 16 and then taking 6th is outstanding (lost to Linsman and then beat Roggie, Hibler, Brooks, Gillett, Evanitsky, and McCallister).
145 lbs.
Solid work at 145 … 15 of 16 made the Round of 16, but just 5 of 8 made the quarters with Voinovich, Haase, and Gaj pulling “upsets”.
152 lbs.
Not great through the Round of 16 … 12 of 16, but 7 of 8 made the quarters (and the other was Bambinelli who was the #9 seed). 7 of the 8 top seeds made the podium.
160 lbs.
160 was a struggle. The top 4 seeds were solid, but beyond that it got rough. Just 11 of the top 16 seeds made the Round of 16, but 7 of the top 8 made the quarters. Unseeded Dominic Frontino was a bracket buster.
170 lbs.
Similar but different to 160. Same # of the top 8 make the podium (6). 13 of the top 16 make the Round of 16 (solid), but just 5 of 8 make the quarters and some chaos on the backside as unseeded Ty Eise came all the way back through to take 3rd (only loss to eventual Champ Rocco Welsh in the quarters).
182 lbs.
Doesn’t get any better for a seeder than what happened at 182. All 14 seeded wrestlers made the Round of 16. Top 8 made the quarters and 7 of the 8 made the podium.
195 lbs.
Good, but not great at 195. Unseeded Myles Johnson busted the bracket and #11 seed Brian Burburija finished 6th.
220 lbs.
12 of the top 16 made the Round of 16 with 7 of 8 making the quarters. Impressive run by Devin Kendrex on the backside … unseeded loses to Walters in the Round of 16 and then wins 3 in a row to make the podium. From a seeding perspective it was good, but not great.
285 lbs.
Another good, but not great weight. 7 of the top 8 seeds made the quarters.