A Fan's Guide to the NC 1A State Duals
We have reached the Elite 8 and if we believe the ranking we have a couple of “Cinderellas” still dancing after the opening weekend of the state series. Because the NCHSAA uses rankwrestlers.com for their seeding (or at the very least the separation in the bracket - we have included their current ranking below). Like other Fan’s Guides … we are not in the business of predictions - interested in that in North Carolina? Visit Carolina Takedown Talk on Rokfin. Rhett and Ryan are happy to give you their two cents on who they think will win it all.
A Fan’s Guide is a little different. So what is a Fan’s Guide?
The Fan’s Gudie is a look at the tournament as a whole (at least from this point moving forward since two rounds have already been wrestled and there wasn’t enough time to provide this information after brackets were released on Thursday and before wrestling happened on Saturday) … from a fan’s perspective. But it is not a prediction of who will hoist the tophy on Saturday.
A Fan’s Guide is a little different. It is a look at a few individual pieces from each bracket … they include:
Favorite: the team (of the 8 that remain) that look (at least on paper) as the team to beat.
Darkhorse: a team a little off the radar … everyone seems to be talking about this team or that and this team has all the pieces to surprise some people.
The most in-depth part of the dual Fan’s Guide is a look at the possible lineups for the 8 teams and this next matchup which will happen this Wednesday. We try to breakdown each of those matchups and tell you which team might have an edge … projecting to possible final 4 matchups or the finals more difficult - so like each team below we will focus on the next match. The favorite, the darkhorse, and the overall summary gives you an idea of what we think might happen the rest of the week.
A look at the bracket …
Overall: Uwharrie Charter has been impressive this season … they are currently ranked #1 and have beaten Robbinsville as well as Swain County and others. They have hammers up and down the lineup and are going to be a tough out. Thomasville vs. Rosewood should be a good one on Wednesday and the winner should get their shot at Uwharrie. The bottom side features familiar faces that include Robbinsville, Swain County, Avery County, and Mt Airy.
Favorite: Uwharrie Charter
I haven’t watched Carolina Takedown Talk’s breakdown of 1A, but I’d venture a guess there might be some disagreement about who the favorite is in 1A. On paper it isn’t close … Uwharrie Charter is ranked #1 by rankwrestlers.com, are 29-0 on the season, and are the #1 seed in the East. They also beat Robbinsville 55-15 in early December … yes it was early December, but it is important to keep it in mind.
Darkhorse: Swain County
Swain County has an uphill climb especially considering that their last time out vs. Robbinsville they lost 53-15. But this is a team that goes and competes against everyone. They are 19-8 on the season with losses to Cary, Uwharrie Charter, Avery County, etc. … they have been in the mix and aren’t afraid to toe the line against anyone in the bracket.
Pretty much every matchup will feature a ranked vs. ranked match with the exception of 106 where we could see Brennan Worrell (#5) vs. Brian Brothers.
Expect Hines to bump to 113 to take on Cody Wood (although both Worrell and Hines have wrestled some at 113 this season)
Edge: Uwharrie Charter (8) – UC should have the edge in 8 matches and could make some moves down low to bump Alston to face Mewborn if it is necessary.
Edge: Pamlico (4) – Pamlico should have the edge at 120, 126, 152 and 220 … if they have 2 forfeits in the lineup then they will need to pull some upsets to down the #1 team in the East.
Maness or Bond vs. Baker could be a good one at 195 … same with Alston or Ulloa vs. Mewborn at 152. Uwharrie has a much wider path to victory than does Pamlico.
Potentially some good matchups in this one
Thomasville Edge: 3
Returning State Placer Carlos Vazquez is unbeaten on the season and holds the edge at 120
160 leans to Thomasville as Henderson is ranked higher and is also a returning SQ
Taj Gabriel is ranked 13th at 220 and a weight that Thomasville needs to win
Rosewood Edge: 5
Returning State Runner-up Jason Kennedy has the edge at 126 … Thomasville will look to limit bonus here
138, 152, 170, and 182 all lean to Rosewood, but each of these are close – so it is a lean not necessarily a given Rosewood win
Toss-ups: 6
106, 132, 145, 195, 285
113 Two top 5 wrestlers in Gomez and Holmes … both Juniors and both were State Qualifiers a year ago
The two teams have met twice this season … once it was close (35-34 Robbinsville) and the other time (just 11 days ago) was Robbinsville by 38 (53-15). So which match will we get?
Last time out … Swain County got wins at 138, 160, and 195 - that won’t work if they want to advance. Now Neaudeau was DQ’d at 285 - so that is a possible 6 coming back to Swain County, but regardless they must win others (132, 170, and 220 seem the likely spots) … and perhaps at 120 where Stephenson and Hooper have traded wins.
Robbinsville needs to replicate their last time out … they won the close matches (except at 195).
This isn’t the same dominant Avery County team we have seen over the last decade, but it is still good from top to bottom. They are 18-3 on the season with close losses to Newton Conover and West Lincoln. We haven’t seen them against Airy (or Robbinsville) so it will be interesting to see how the two teams matchup.
Avery is very tough from 106-132 and get up on teams very fast if given the opportunity. Mt Airy must slow down Avery in that stretch of matches and get to 138, 145, and 160 within striking distance. Cael Dunn and Seth Blackledge are very tough up top for Avery (up to 182), but beyond that they might struggle (where Airy could put up wins/falls with Agabo and Harper).