A Fan's Guide to the NC 2A State Duals
We have reached the Elite 8 and if we believe the ranking we have a couple of “Cinderellas” still dancing after the opening weekend of the state series. Because the NCHSAA uses rankwrestlers.com for their seeding (or at the very least the separation in the bracket - we have included their current ranking below). Like other Fan’s Guides … we are not in the business of predictions - interested in that in North Carolina? Visit Carolina Takedown Talk on Rokfin. Rhett and Ryan are happy to give you their two cents on who they think will win it all.
A Fan’s Guide is a little different. So what is a Fan’s Guide?
The Fan’s Gudie is a look at the tournament as a whole (at least from this point moving forward since two rounds have already been wrestled and there wasn’t enough time to provide this information after brackets were released on Thursday and before wrestling happened on Saturday) … from a fan’s perspective. But it is not a prediction of who will hoist the tophy on Saturday.
A Fan’s Guide is a little different. It is a look at a few individual pieces from each bracket … they include:
Favorite: the team (of the 8 that remain) that look (at least on paper) as the team to beat.
Darkhorse: a team a little off the radar … everyone seems to be talking about this team or that and this team has all the pieces to surprise some people.
The most in-depth part of the dual Fan’s Guide is a look at the possible lineups for the 8 teams and this next matchup which will happen this Wednesday. We try to breakdown each of those matchups and tell you which team might have an edge … projecting to possible final 4 matchups or the finals more difficult - so like each team below we will focus on the next match. The favorite, the darkhorse, and the overall summary gives you an idea of what we think might happen the rest of the week.
A Look at the Bracket:
Overall:
Newton-Conover has beaten Lincolnton, Bandys, and West Lincoln already this season … so they appear to have the edge on the bottom side of the bracket. Bunn has looked good to this point and already has a win over their Elite 8 opponent (Manteo) - they haven’t faced either of the other teams on their side. So if we look at it based on past performance - you’d lean a Newton-Conover vs. Bunn match (both 1 seeds and neither has lost to a team on their side of the bracket). But none of these matches are a given and if any of the teams can flip a match (or two) they could be in Saturday’s finals. West Craven is the Cinerella story … we will see if they can keep it from striking midnight.
Favorite: Newton-Conover
If we go strictly by rankings then Newton-Conover is the team to beat. They are the 1 seed out west and have a 38-0 dual record this season with wins over Lincolnton (who they meet coming on Wednesday), St Stephens, Avery County, Bandys, West Lincoln (40-20) and others … but it is hard to not look to Bunn - the top seed in the East. They are 23-1 on the season with their lone loss coming to Cary … they have beaten Manteo (60-21) - who they get first on Wednesday, but haven’t see either West Craven or Southwest Onslow. So Newton-Conover is the “favorite”, but I think you can make an argument for several teams in the 8.
Darkhorse: Bandys
The defending champs have losses to both Newton Conover and West Lincoln so a run here seems unlikely, but hear me out. They got crushed by West Lincoln in late December 66-9, they lost 46-23 about 10 days ago … they will need to take some matches from West Lincoln, but it isn’t crazy to think they have a shot … they also lost to Newton-Conover 36-32 about 3 weeks ago as well.
Another 2A matchup that has already happened once this season with Bunn winning 60-21 in late December. So from Bunn’s perspective it is simple … do what you did last time and you march on. In fact, Bunn won 10 of the 14 individual matches - always a recipe for success. Now keep in mind that Perciful of Manteo was DQ’d in his match with Scott, but even if that flips it wouldn’t change the outcome of the dual.
If Manteo forfeits 132 and 138 like they did the last time then the path to a win is tough … Gulledge didn’t wrestle in that dual (and hasn’t wrestled since early December so … keep that in mind). Brewster who is ranked was pinned by Anderson and that’s a match Manteo has to have if they want the win. This is a tough matchup for Manteo - especially with any forfeits - they will need to limit bonus and flip matches from the previous meeting if they are going to advance.
West Craven are the Cinderella story of the 2A bracket … they beat #6 seed Heide Trask 39-33 and then #3 seed Washington 45-36 to advance. Now they get #2 seed Southwest Onslow (and a top 10 ranked dual team according to rankwrestlers.com). Let’s be honest this is an uphill climb for West Craven … they will likely have the edge at three weights (126, 138, and 152) so turning the toss-up matches their way will be huge.
Southwest Onslow looks to have the edge at 106, 113 (maybe a forfeit for West Craven), 132, 160, 170, 182, and 195 … that would be 7 so winning those and taking a couple of the toss-up matches would seal a win for them and advance them to the final 4.
Don’t be surprised if 120, 145, 220, and 285 are the key to which team advances.
Another dual that you can look back to just a week ago to get a sense of how this might play out …
Newton-Conover downed Lincolnton 42-24 - winning 10 of the 14 matches … so Lincolnton has their work cut out for them
For Lincolton to get the win they have a lot of work to do, but it all begins with Lynch, Deaton, Teague, and Walker getting falls once again. 106 is huge for Lincolnton … Powell lost a 4-3 decision to Garcia in a match that Lincolnton has to win if they are going to take the dual. Same is true at 138 and 152 where they lost close decisions … still that makes it 7 wins vs. 7 wins … if they can limit bonus at 120, 195, and 220 they have a shot (bonus that goes from a major to a fall would be tough to overcome).
For Newton-Conover the path is simple - win 10 again and they advance. Michaud, Clark, and Lioret-Tutty won by majors, but other than having those be falls or tech falls instead this team doesn’t need to change a thing.
The easiest thing to do with this matchup is to look at their last meeting … a 46-23 win for West Lincoln. West Lincoln won down low with 106-120 and 132 (and had 4 falls) and then up top 170-285 (2 falls at 220 and 285). Bandys won 126 and the middle from 138-160 (with 2 falls and a tech fall).
So we can talk about who has the edge where, but in reality this is what needs to happen for each team …
West Lincoln - run it back. Harrelson, Saine, Leatherman, Ingle, and Stewart get falls again and win the tough matches (like Goins over Cranfill at 195).
Bandys - Sain pinned McCrary at 285 … Avery Miller is ranked #5, but hasn’t wrestled since November so it looks like it is on McCrary’s shoulders to either flip the match or at the very least not give up bonus. Nix, Ballew, Burkett, and Moore must do their job again in the middle and flip something down low.