Knockout Preview
Lots of up and downs over the last several months as the crew at Osceola High School has worked to keep the Knockout (and add the Southern Belle and the Middle School tournament) alive in 2020. They have assembled a great field of teams and individuals, but it hasn’t been easy. You can find some of the previous teams from the promotion that we have been working on over the last several months. I don’t want to go into the details of losing programs like Lake Gibson, New Kent (VA), Thompson (AL) … and instead am thankful that we have gotten to just a couple of days out and still have an outstanding field.
The Teams
With the defending Knockout Champs, Lake Gibson, out - the team title will go home with a new crew in 2020. Looking back at past Knockout’s a few themes have emerged …
Teams win as teams. And what that means is that having a few outstanding individuals has not yielded a team title in recent memory. The last team to have more than 2 individual champs was the 2018 Woodland team that had 4 Champs and finished 3rd … because they only had one other placer. It is nice to get points at the top, but it is imperative that those teams in the hunt get their wrestlers to win on the backside. Here are a few examples …
Lake Gibson won 2019 with 1 Champ and 7 other placers
Woodland finished 2nd last year to Lake Gibson with 1 Champ and 7 other placers
Camden won 2018 with no champs and 7 placers
Camden edged South Dade for the 2017 title with 2 Champs and 7 placers (South Dade had 3 champs and 5 placers).
It looks as if for a team to be in the hunt they must put half of their squad somewhere on the podium. The 2018 Camden squad had no champs and just one finalist, but had 3 that finished 3rd and a trio that finished 5th or 6th (those points pushed them past Lake Gibson). No team has won the Knockout in recent memory without at least 7 placers … so which teams have the ability to do that in 2020?
Favorite: Woodland (GA)
Woodland could have as many as 5 finalists - which means that they would need to find two others to make the podium to put them in contention. McCrary, Henson, and Smith should be amongst the favorites at their weights. Colton Bishop and Cole Cochran should be one of the top contenders at 132 and 160 … so where will Woodland get the other points? Look to Easton Bishop, Jeremiah Rhodes, and Beau Jernigan - they could be the difference in the end.
Contenders:
South Dade (FL)
One of the things South Dade does exceptionally well is getting points from everyone on the team. It is a mindset of the Bucs that every single wrestler will contribute to them winning championships. That’s not to say that South Dade doesn’t have hammers at the top - they do in Morales, Couto, Neco, Swan, and Bartelt. The challenge for SD is that the weights where they have hammers might be the toughest of the tournament. So who will SD look to? Keep an eye on Acevedo (106), Arbos (126), Balmeceda (132), White (152), Crouse/Silverio (160) and Silimon (182). They will be key if South Dade is going to win the title.
Baylor (TN)
Baylor is top heavy. What I mean by that is that they, like Woodland, have hammers up top … Corday (113), Bond (126), Dendy (138), and Harper (195). But like SD, their hammers happen to be in the toughest weights in the tournament (except at 126). Remember the key # of placers looks to be 7 … so where are Baylor’s 3 other placers? One could be Micah Tisdale at 145 (but that weight is stacked - he will have to wrestle lights out to make the podium). Another is Porter Kaufman at 152. 152 doesn’t appear as tough as 145, but the path won’t be easy there either. And finally we have Anthony Mannella at 160 and Gunnar Garriques at 182. Not to say that Baylor couldn’t get Christensen on the podium at 285 or someone else, but the above are the 7/8 that I will be watching to see if they can fight through and help the team claim a title.
Tuttle (OK)
To be fair to Tuttle - I don’t really know that much about them as a team. Here is what we do know … they are the defending Oklahoma 4A State Champs. They have some absolute hammers in Bryce Dauphin and Harley Andrews. They also have some excellent wrestlers in Braden Potts, Ashton Grounds, Reese Davis, and Parrish Terry. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Tuttle in the mix for the title.
Somerset (FL)
Somerset is on the edge between contender and darkhorse. They share many similarities with the teams below … they have their hammers - Bas Diaz, Darian Estevez, and Sean Concepcion. But the reason Somerset is the last on my contenders list is that they have some significant depth (which we’ve already talked about being key to claiming the team title). How high Somerset climbs and whether they are able to knock off those above them will come down to how well Christian Fretwell, Elvis Solis, Chase Gillis, Raymond Greene, Christian Estrada, and Matthew Jimenez wrestle. If they can put 7 of those 9 on the podium - they should be in the hunt.
Darkhorses:
Jesuit (FL)
Charlotte (FL)
Cass (GA)
Southwest Miami (FL)
Osceola (FL)
Palmetto Ridge (FL)
Each of the teams above - including several teams not listed - have some legit hammers and could be in the mix. The question is their depth. Do they have 7 that will make the podium? Jesuit has 4-6, Cass has 4-5, Charlotte 4-6, etc. Each has enough to keep them in the hunt, but it will take some exceptional wrestling from some wrestlers that are “off the radar” for any of these teams to take the title. Is it possible? Yes. It it likely with the other teams listed? Not really.
The Weights
Lots of movement as we near the tournament. Will McCrary be 138 or 145? Will we see Tennessee hammers Hunter Mason and Keyveon Roller? Word had it that Darrell Rochester was going to be at 115 before Valdosta had to drop out at the last moment. I think what you read below is about as close as I can get to what the actual weights will look like as we stand 3 days away. 138 and 195 are absolutely unbelievable … 120 and 145 should be excellent as well. For the teams above - can they get points at 106 or 285 (two of the least stacked weights)? Remember - from a team perspective - 20 points at 106 or 138 is the same … the level of wrestling to get the 20 points at 138 might be significantly different than the level at another weight, but it doesn’t matter in the end.
If you have never read one of my previews - I do not predict a winner or even who will make the podium. Too many unknowns with high school wrestlers. What you will see below is who I think the favorite is, who are the contenders, as well as a darkhorse (someone that may or may not be seeded in the top 8, but could make some noise) and a bracket buster (someone that isn’t likely to be seeded, but has the ability to cause havoc). I wish the brackets were available ahead of time because we could talk about the matches to watch … but that isn’t an option … so this hopefully will give the average fan the names that they should watch on Monday and Tuesday.
106 lbs.
Favorite: Christian Guzman - Miami Columbus
Contenders:
Dominic Nardini - Springstead
Trenton Dominguez - Timber Creek
Tyler Washburn - Palmetto Ridge
Colby McBride - Woodward Academy (GA)
Jayce Paridon - University Christian
Darkhorse:
Anderson Heap - Osceola
Bracket Buster:
Diogo Santos - Berkeley Prep
Summary: A wide open weight class - except at the top where Christian Guzman is the clear favorite. Guzman was a 2020 State Runner-up at the weight and made the podium at the Grappler Fall Classic. No favorite is a certainty (except maybe Big Momma at 285), but Guzman is right up there and should make the finals. I’m very interested to see where a pair of newcomers are in the bracket - Anderson Heap of Osceola and Christian Fretwell of Somerset. Either (or both) could cause some chaos. I’d be surprised if Nardini isn’t the #2 seed (could be McBride) and either will look to make it through the bottom side.
113 lbs.
Favorite: Nick Corday - Baylor (TN)
Contenders:
Adrian Morales - South Dade (FL)
Braden Potts - Tuttle (OK)
Patrick Nolan - Charlotte
Oran Decker - Harris County (GA)
Angelo DeDona - Manatee
Darkhorse: Jake Crapps - Cass (GA)
Bracket Buster: Kevin Placer - Southwest Miami (FL)
Summary: Remember the name Jake Crapps. He will not be seeded very high (if he is even seeded), but he should be. The Georgia freshman has been knocking off State Champs and State Placers all over Georgia at 113 and 120 and he will be in the mix. The weight is headlined by nationally-ranked Nick Corday (a recent Army commit). Corday lost to Crapps’s teammate Cole Hunt in the Grappler Fall Classic semis, but the defending 2x State Champ is the man to beat here. It seems likely that Potts and Morales will be the 2 and 3 seed on the bottom side of the bracket. Look for some quarterfinal fireworks at 113 - don’t be surprised if you see Nolan vs. DeDona or Decker or something similar. Quarters on will be exceptional - trust me.
120 lbs.
Favorite: Cole Hunt - Cass (GA)
Contenders:
Ashton Grounds - Tuttle (OK)
Elijah Lusk - Merritt Island
Cooper Haase - Osceola
Noah Wadle- Manatee
Conner Hueck - Miami Southridge
Darkhorse: Davin Lundqist - Harris County (GA)
Bracket Buster: Ethan Sellers - Colquitt County (GA)
Summary: Hunt enters as the favorite in a weight that seems to have fluctuated in recent days. I thought we might see Keyveon Roller, but he is nursing an injury after Armageddon. We are also missing Danny Martinez (last year’s Knockout Champ) who is still on the return from injury. No matter - Hunt is the favorite in a deep weight that includes 5 others that have won a state title. Grounds and Lusk are probably your 2 and 3 seeds and will have their work cut out for them on the bottom side of the bracket. Haase seems the likely 4 seed with Wadle or Hueck at 5 and 6. Keep an eye on Ethan Sellers of Colquitt County … he has quietly had a great season so far and could cause chaos. Jesuit’s Chris Albo and Davin Lundquist are also a pair that could make some noise.
126 lbs.
Favorite: Braden Basile - Tampa Jesuit
Contenders:
Jackson Bond - Baylor (TN)
Andrew Austin - Charlotte
Bryce Kresho - Cass (GA)
Misha Arbos - South Dade
Tyler Reeve - Florida
Darkhorse: Easton Bishop - Woodland (GA)
Bracket Buster: Tucker Kinsaul - Harris County (GA)
Summary: Haven’t watched Braden Basile wrestle before? You will get your opportunity this Monday - he headlines the 126 lb. weight. Basile is a grinder - he is hard-nosed and always going. Absolutely love watching him wrestle. Basile should be joined in the top 4 seeds by fellow State Champs Jackson Bond (a 2x TN Champ), Andrew Austin, and Bryce Kresho. Whoever gets the 4 seed out of this group will likely get Basile in the semis, but you can’t get looking ahead at 126 … there are plenty of wrestlers that could upset the apple cart. Arbos is a Georgia State Runner-up that is now at South Dade and Tyler Reeve is a 2x State Placer and a previous Knockout placer. Woodland will look to Easton Bishop to make the podium and he has the ability to beat anyone in the bracket. Kinsaul is another Georgia State Placer and is 25-1 on the year … he is going to be tough anywhere in the bracket.
132 lbs.
Favorite: Sebastian Melguizo - Southwest Miami
Contenders:
Brennan Van Hoecke - Palmetto Ridge
Colton Bishop - Woodland (GA)
Eli Doolittle - Cass (GA)
Isaac Church - Charlotte
Duke Byfield - Jensen Beach
Darkhorse: Gavin Young - Tampa Jesuit
Bracket Buster: Brandon Cody - The Master’s Academy
Summary: Melguizo or Van Hoecke? Not sure who gets the top seed. Does it matter? Yes. Colton Bishop is a 2x Georgia Runner-up and was 3rd at the Knockout last year (and nearly beat one of the Crook’s - can’t remember which one of the top of my head). Facing Bishop in a potential semifinal is going to be a tough challenge. Doolittle and Church are probably the 4 and 5 seeds and (assuming they get there) will be a very good quarterfinal matchup. It will be interesting to see where Byfield, Young, Cody, Hayden Brown of Tuttle, Colby Uderitz of American Heritage, and Nikolas Hernandez of Riverview fall on the bracket. Each will look to knock off one of those top 4 seeds.
138 lbs.
Favorite: Caden McCrary - Woodland (GA)
Contenders:
Tom Crook - Tampa Jesuit
Garrison Dendy - Baylor (TN)
Jaekus Hines - Osceola
Hunter Noland - Dalton (GA)
Alex Couto - South Dade
Reese Davis - Tuttle (OK)
Darkhorse: Brayden Ivy - Lakeway Christian (TN)
Bracket Buster: Chase Gillis - Somerset
Summary: Almost certainly the best weight class at this year’s Knockout. McCrary, Crook, and Dendy are all nationally-ranked and should be your top 3 seeds. Hines is likely #4 with Noland or Couto #5. How tough is 138? National Prep Placer (4th in 2020) Brayden Ivy slips in as my darkhorse and will likely be the 7th or 8th seed. Reese Davis is a returning Oklahoma State Champ and could be #4 or #5 also. The Round of 16 will feature some great matchups here as the weight not only has top end talent, but it super deep with another 8 State Placers including State Runner-up Vincenzo Napolitana. The quarters and semis will be insane - much like we saw last year with Tal Shahar, McCrary, Abdon, etc.
145 lbs.
Favorite: Michael Kilic - Woodward Academy (GA)
Contenders:
Bryce Dauphin - Tuttle (OK)
Jack Crook - Tampa Jesuit
Bas Diaz - Somerset
Jeremy Paradice - Colquitt County (GA)
Adrian Neco - South Dade
Christian Moder - Golden Gate
Darkhorse: Rafael Romero - American Heritage
Bracket Buster: Dylan Mira - Miami Columbus
Summary: Whether McCrary is here or at 138 - it doesn’t matter that much because 145 is still super deep. If McCrary is down at 138 (which is likely) then Kilic becomes the favorite over Dauphin and Crook. Who is #2 and #3 … probably doesn’t matter much. Bas Diaz, Jeremy Paradice, Adrian Neco, and Christian Moder could all make a case for the #4 spot. Regardless that quartet will need to beat Kilic, Dauphin or Crook to make the finals … so do you get them in the quarters or semis? 2x State Placer Rafael Romero is the darkhorse (and that should be a clear indicator of how deep 145 is). Romero is a hammer an will make for an interesting quarterfinal no matter who he draws. Mira is the bracket buster … he is a 3x State Qualifier and has faced some of the best around.
152 lbs.
Favorite: Caleb Henson - Woodland (GA)
Contenders:
Darian Estevez - Somerset
Kodiak Cannedy - Greeneville (TN)
Cordell White - South Dade
Porter Kaufman - Baylor (TN)
Roman Garcia - Palmetto Ridge (FL)
Darkhorse: Damon McMillan - Harris County (GA)
Bracket Buster: Tehran Piza - Jensen Beach
Summary: Henson is probably the best wrestler at the Knockout in 2020 … that’s not a slight of Chase Horne or any of the other hammers. Henson has been unbeatable and it is always great to watch him compete (the last time I saw him was at the Elite 8 Duals where he was outstanding). Estevez and Cannedy are almost certainly your #2 and #3 seeds. The pair met in Tulsa in August with Estevez winning in sudden victory. Expect that kind of match again if the two meet in the semis. Even with Henson, Estevez, and Cannedy - this weight is wide open after the top 3. Cordell White can really help South Dade … he is probably the 4 seed and needs to win that 4 vs 5 matchup. Keep an eye on Damon McMillan - Georgia State Qualifier that is unbeaten on the year and might be flying under the radar a bit.
160 lbs.
Favorite: Lucas Willis - Charlotte
Contenders:
Cole Cochran - Woodland (GA)
Sergio Desiante - Tampa Jesuit
Jared Purcell - Lake Mary
Grant Monroe - Harris County (GA)
Quiton Johnson - Miami Southridge
Darkhorse: Zach McKnight - Cass (GA)
Bracket Buster: Jadiel Silverio - South Dade
Summary: Willis has all of the credentials - he is a 4x State Champ and on the precipice of becoming just one of a handful of 5x State Champs in Florida. But he has never won the Knockout (from what I can find). He enters as the favorite to take the title in 2020, but Cochran, Desiante, and Purcell are all there to challenge him. Keep an eye on McKnight, Silverio, and Anthony Mannella - each has the ability to climb high on the podium and provide their team some important points.
170 lbs.
Favorite: Matthew Singleton - Woodward Academy (GA)
Contenders:
Dylan Kohn - The Master’s Academy
Joshua Swan - South Dade
Cody Rice - Charlotte
Tate Evans - Richmond Hill (GA)
Cale Hoskinson - Clay
Darkhorse: Cory Cannan - Barron Collier
Bracket Buster: Khalil Mitchell - Merritt Island
Summary: Singleton is currently #4 by Flo and is ranked by all of the national ranking services. He has spent time up at 182 this season, but is at 170 for a run at a 2nd Knockout title (he beat Lucas DeSilva in last year’s 160 final). Kohn has been super impressive all fall as well as the high school season. He is a 2x State Placer, was 3rd at the Grappler Fall Classic and was a Fargo All American. He is probably the 2 seed - but don’t be surprised if South Dade’s Joshua Swan is the 2 seed with Kohn the 3 seed. Swan, the defending Florida 3A 145 lb. State Champ, is a force and a Kohn vs. Swan semifinal should be must watch. Rice, Evans or Hoskinson is probably your 4, 5 and 6. Two of the three should meet in the 2nd quarter of the bracket for a shot at Singleton. Keep an eye on both Cannan and Mitchell as well as Cooper Galvin, David Garcia, and Achilles Rocha.
182 lbs.
Favorite: Tylynn Lukens - Manatee
Contenders:
Sean Concepcion - Somerset
Ethan Lopez - Hagerty
Greyson Clark - West Laurens (GA)
Gunnar Garriques - Baylor (TN)
David Emfinger - Harris County (GA)
Darkhorse: Craig Silimon - South Dade
Bracket Buster: Cael Newton - Charlotte
Summary: I like this weight class a lot. Lukens is the only nationally-ranked wrestler in the group, but the group behind him are hungry and looking to make their move to the top (much like Lukens was last year when he beat Jaxon Smith in overtime in the Knockout final). Concepcion was 5th at the Knockout a year ago and after claiming a state title will look to add a Knockout title to the mix. Lopez was 3rd a year ago and finished 4th at the State Tournament … a Concepcion vs. Lopez semi would be very interesting. Greyson Clark has quietly had an outstanding fall and it wouldn’t be surprising if he made a run for the top step … but (assuming he is the 4 seed) he would need to beat Garriques or Emfinger (likely) to even get a shot at Lukens. There is not much of a dropoff to Silimon, Newton, Ben Valdes, Joseph Nicolosi, and Jeremiah Rhodes … meaning you can expect close matches from the Round of 16 on at 182.
195 lbs.
Favorite: David Harper - Baylor (TN)
Contenders:
Jaxon Smith - Woodland (GA)
Mikey Tal Shahar - American Heritage
Nolin Eaddy - Osceola
Sawyer Bartelt - South Dade
Ryan Cody - The Master’s Academy
Darkhorse: Parrish Terry - Tuttle (OK)
Bracket Buster: Jeremiah Mauras - Southwest Miami
Summary: It isn’t often that you talk about a Oklahoma State Runner-up as a “darkhorse” or a 3A Florida State Placer as a “bracket buster”, but that is what we have at 195. Besides 138 - this is probably the best weight at the Knockout in 2020. I leaned to Harper as the favorite, but only because I haven’t seen Smith on the mat since he was injured at the Grappler Fall Classic. Both are nationally-ranked and both are hammers. But 195 is deep and both better be ready early on … this weight class has hammers all over. Tal Shahar, Eaddy, Bartelt, and Cody might be #3-#6 meaning that they could matchup in the quarters … wow. Add in potential quarters with Georgia State Champ Thomas Godbee and Oklahoma State Runner-up Parrish Terry and you know you better be watching this weight from the start.
220 lbs.
Favorite: Harley Andrews - Tuttle (OK)
Contenders:
Dedric Marshall - Miami Southridge
Noah Hoffmeir - Cass (GA)
Chase Thompson - American Heritage
Garrett Tyre - Clay
Donnie Shoup - Manatee
Darkhorse: Thomas Crawford - Richmond Hill (GA)
Bracket Buster: Evan Guyton - West Laurens (GA)
Summary: Oklahoma State Champ Harley Andrews is ranked #11 by Flo at 285 and is committed (signed?) by Nebraska. Interested in seeing how good Andrews is? Check out this match vs. Emmanuel Skillings. It will be interesting to see who is the 2 and 3 seed because one of these 3 (Marshall, Hoffmeier, and Thompson) will have to win a tough quarterfinal to setup a matchup with Andrews (in all likelihood). Keep an eye on a pair from Georgia - Thomas Crawford and Evan Guyton … I expect they will be in the mix through the entire tournament.
285 lbs.
Favorite: Chase Horne - West Laurens (GA)
Contenders:
Marvin Collins - Winter Springs
Ethan Vergara - Mater Lakes
Matthew Jimenez - Somerset
Gerald Greaves - Dr Phillips
Beau Jernigan - Woodland (GA)
Darkhorse: Jaylin Burns - Vidalia (GA)
Bracket Buster: Adrian Sans - Southwest Miami
Summary: Horne is either the #1 or #2 heavyweight in the country … as a result he is probably the biggest favorite of the tournament. Selfishly I was hoping Andrews would be up at 285 so we could see a potential super match between Horne and Andrews, but that doesn’t seem likely. Collins, Vergara, and Jimenez have each placed at the Knockout previously and will look to occupy the #2 or #3 seed on the bottom side of the bracket. This is another weight that could play a huge role in the team race … can Sans of Southwest Miami, Jernigan of Woodland, or Sam Christensen of Baylor make a run for a spot on the podium?