Knockout Day 1
Defending Oklahoma 4A State Champs Tuttle is in the lead after day one of the Knockout in Central Florida. Tuttle leads TN D2 State Champs Baylor by 13.5 points, Florida 3A State Champs South Dade by 37.5 points, Florida 2A Runner-up (based on traditional states) Tampa Jesuit by 38 points, and Georgia 5A State Champs Woodland by 42 points. Somerset, Cass, Southwesr Miami, Charlotte, and American Heritage Delray Beach round out the top 10.
How likely is it that Tuttle will go wire to wire and win the 2020 Knockout?
If you read the preview - the key # we were looking at was 7 … if a team could get 7 placers they would be in the hunt. So here is a look at each of the top 10 teams and how many they have remaining in the bracket. Remember we begin Tuesday in the consis and follow that round with the semis at 11 am.
Tuttle (OK) - Tuttle begins the day with 5 in the semis (if you make the semis you have made the podium) - so they are hunting for at least 2 more spots.
Semifinalists: Braden Potts (113); Ashton Grounds (120); Hayden Brown (132); Bryce Dauphin (145), and Harley Andrews (220). Dauphin and Andrews are the “higher seeds” in their semifinal matchups and the most likely to move into the finals. Getting 3, 4 or 5 finalists would be huge for Tuttle.
Consis I (lost Qtrs and waiting): Reese Davis (138); Tucker Waitman (160); and Parrish Terry (195). Davis, Waitman, and Terry each lost in the quarters and will wait for their next opponent. This group must win 2 more matches to place top 6.
Consis II (lost earlier than Qtrs and have a match at 10 am): JJ Head (128); Andy Mejia (152); Chance Cobb (170); and Sam Schmidt (182).
The skinny: Tuttle have 12 still in the hunt … 4 need 3 wins away from placing and 3 need 2 wins to place. Chances that they will have 7 or more placers is excellent.
Baylor (TN) - Baylor begins day 2 13.5 points behind Tuttle. Baylor have 4 in the semifinals … so they will need to find 3 others to make #7.
Semifinalists: Nick Corday (113); Garrison Dendy (138); Anthony Mannella (160), and David Harper (195). Corday, Dendy, and Harper enter as the “higher” seeds and it wouldn’t be surprising to see all 3 in the finals. Each will have tough matches and nothing is guaranteed … but getting 3 would be huge. Mannella is the 5 seed and will need a great semi if he is going to knock off top seed Lucas Willis.
Consis I (lost Qtrs and waiting): Jackson Bond (126); Gunnar Garriques (182); and Heath Snodgrass (220). Each is waiting on the next opponent and will be counted on the get two wins and make the podium.
Consis II (lost earlier than Qtrs and have a match at 10 am): Micah Tisdale (145); Michael Kinsey (170); Sam Christensen (285).
The skinny: Baylor have 10 still in the hunt (2 fewer than Tuttle). Assuming Corday, Dendy, and Harper take care of business - Baylor will or will not make a run for the team title based almost entirely on how well Bond, Garriques, Snodgrass, Tisdale, Kinsey, and Christensen wrestle. Chance that they will have 7 place in the top 6? Somewhere between good and very good.
South Dade (FL) - South Dade begins day 2 a distant 3rd (37.5 points back of the lead). The climb back might be too steep for these teams, but let’s take a look at who they have wrestling and whether they can make up the ground.
Semifinalists: Adrian Morales (113); Joshua Swan (170); and Sawyer Bartelt (182). With 3 their margin narrows … based on “higher” seeds - Morales and Swan would be considered “favorites”. But all 3 will be in for a tough match. It wouldn’t surprise me to see South Dade go 3-0 and have 3 finalists - but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see them go 0-3 and have no finalists.
Consis I (lost Qtrs and waiting): Gavin Balmeceda (132); Alex Couto (138); Cordell White (152). If this trio can get 3 wins - South Dade will have 6 on the podium. I’d expect Couto and White to get back through and onto the podium … will Balmeceda?
Consis II (lost earlier that Qtrs and have a match at 10 am): Luis Acevedo (106); Misha Arbos (126); and Jadiel Silverio (162).
The skinny: South Dade have 9 still in the hunt … 1 less than Baylor and 3 fewer than Tuttle. With just 9 the chances of getting 7 onto the podium falls a bit - simply the because the margin of error is very small. I’d say their chance is good, but not no higher. If Sillimon and Crouse were spread out and not sharing a weight … South Dade would be closer.
Tampa Jesuit (FL) - Jesuit begins Day 2 with 4 semifinalists … and is just half a point back from South Dade.
Semifinalists: Braden Basile. Tom and Jack Crook, and Sergio Desiante. Basile is the only one that comes in with the “higher seed” - meaning that the Crooks and Desiante should be in some great matches in the semis. Each has the ability to win and Jesuit could end up with 4 finalists (but it would be a surprise to see just one (or two) in the finals.
Consis I (lost Qtrs and waiting): Chris Albo (120) and Gavin Young (132).
Consis II (lost earlier that Qtrs and have a match at 10 am): Danny Vargas (113) and Josiah Jenkins (152).
The skinny: Jesuit simply doesn’t have the depth - the chances of getting 7 placers is not very good. Jesuit has 4 - I think the chances that they get another 2 is pretty good, but to get 3 of the 4 in the consis to get through to the podium isn’t very likely.
Woodland (GA) - Woodland begins Day 2 in a hole compared to Tuttle and Baylor. They could vault into 3rd with a few wins but narrowing the lead of Tuttle and Baylor is going to be significantly more difficult.
Semifinalists: Caden McCrary (138); Caleb Henson (152); Cole Cochran (160); and Jaxon Smith (195). Each of the 4 will be favored in their matchups (based on being the high seed) - so it seems likely that Woodland will have 4 finalists, but can they get 3 others onto the podium? Not having Colton Bishop at 132 is tough (they are in 3rd after day 1 if he was in the lineup).
Consis I (lost Qtrs and waiting): Easton Bishop (126)
Consis II (lost earlier that Qtrs and have a match at 10 am): Hayden Santora (106); Randy Buchanan (132); Jeremiah Rhodes (182); and Charles Higdon (220).
The skinny: Woodland has 4 placers already - and 4 that should be in the finals (no guarantees, but they will be favored). Bishop will have 2 very tough matches to make the podium - either against Arbos or Corrales first and then he will likely get the #2 seed Jackson Bond of Baylor. Not easy an easy path to place. Can any of the 4 others win 3 matches and make the podium? Woodland may cut into the lead after the semis, but only to watch it fade away on the backside.
Each of the teams sitting in 6th through 10th have a few kids still on the front side of the bracket and a few on the backside. Who continues to get wins and keep marching will play a huge role in how the top 10 ultimately shake out.
